January 4, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures rebounded 18.4¢ Wednesday to $4.172 per million Btu on the heels of a four-day, $1.29 slide that had brought the nearby contract below $4 for the first time since last February. Unseasonably mild temperatures have brought prices to current levels, but "it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for Nymex front-month gas futures to return to the $5.00/MMBtu to $6.50/MMBtu [range] should the pendulum swing in the other direction toward much more bullish supply-demand fundamentals in the weeks ahead," Gelber & Associates analysts said Wednesday.

The 12-month strip climbed 11.8¢ to $4.096; the 2024 strip edged 3¢ higher to $4.171 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $9.96 to $5.12. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 13¢ at $3.78. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 73¢ to average $3.32, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $1.08 to average $4.06. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 79¢ to average $1.69. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $5.77 to $17.20, SoCal Citygate declined $6.46 to average $20.16 and Northwest Sumas lost $7.05 to average $11.26. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 23¢ to $3.03 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much larger-than-normal 228 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Dec. 30 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,884 Bcf, about 9.8% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 98 Bcf and the year-ago pull of 46 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 196, above the 186 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jan. 6 are for a 31 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 151 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 179 Bcf.

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US President Joe Biden named Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) member Willie Phillips as acting chairman Tuesday, replacing Richard Glick who left the post last month. Phillips, one of two Democrats on the commission, is a former public utility regulator for Washington, DC. He also served as assistant general counsel for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and has been vocal during his tenure at FERC on electric reliability issues. Phillips has served on FERC since December 2021, and his term runs until June 2026. Biden has yet to nominate a replacement for Glick’s seat on the five-member body, setting up a 2-2 partisan split for the time being.

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Appalachian gas producer EQT Corp. said Wednesday it completed a nearly 1.5-year, $28 million project that enabled the producer to cut its methane intensity by 70%. The effort entailed eliminating nearly 9,000 natural gas-powered pneumatic devices from its production operations. Those devices accounted or 39% of the company’s production segment Scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2021, the producer said. Completing the project enabled EQT to reduce its annual carbon footprint by 305,614 metric tons of CO2 equivalent, putting its production segment on track to achieve net zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 2025. Among its other emissions reduction efforts, EQT is replacing diesel power in its operations with electric crews.

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Price notice:

Due to a revision by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing at Southern Star for trade day Dec. 29, 2022:

The revised pricing is: Low: $3.45; High: $3.65; Average: $3.47; Volume: 72,250; Deals: 11.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTransco Leidy LineWestcoast Station 2AlgonquinTetco M2NW SumasEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanWhite River HubEl Paso San Juan-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTransco Leidy LineWestcoast Station 2AlgonquinTetco M2NW SumasEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanWhite River HubEl Paso San Juan
Note: Jan 4' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (58), down (19).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 4, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 5, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 4, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)3.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.8Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 3 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 4 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 3 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
3563773533042862481786545Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4(MMcf/d)050100150200250300350400450Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
28 Dec 2229 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 2320004000600080001000012000140001600028 Dec 2229 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500160026 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550025 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)60080010001200140016001800200022002400260025 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
25423721922425622720424629December30December31December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 January05010015020025030035029December30December31December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 16°
Orlando 14°
Boston 11°
Washington 26°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 25°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 10°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 18°
Denver -13°
Austin 12°
Atlanta 20°
Southeast US
New York 16°
Orlando 14°
Boston 11°
Washington 26°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 25°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 10°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 18°
Denver -13°
Austin 12°
Atlanta 20°

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