January 3, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Anemic space heating demand dragged February natural gas futures 48.7¢ lower to settle at $3.988 per million Btu Tuesday. The prompt-month contract has fallen almost 43% since Dec. 15, and Tuesday’s session marks the first time the nearby contract has adopted a $3 handle since last February. Right now, analysts say unseasonably mild temperatures expected to linger through at least mid-January are the biggest weight on the market. “The forecast two-week gas-weighted degree days … are expected to be well below average and produce the single fewest for January 3-16 in the last five years,” Gelber & Associates (G&A) analysts said. Meanwhile, Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn noted that lighter space heating demand may lead to a “minuscule” storage draw in the first week of January of under 20 billion cubic feet. But the third week of January may bring another arctic air mass over the central and eastern US that could offer some price support. "While there could still be more near-term downside action in prices before capitulation sets in, Nymex gas futures have become notably oversold, so the current area offers a good opportunity for buyers," G&A analysts said.

The 12-month strip fell 31.8¢ to $3.978; the 2024 strip declined 13.1¢ to $4.271 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwestern E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $5.87 to $2.78. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 14¢ at $3.65. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 23¢ to average $2.59, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 3¢ to average $2.98. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose $6.19 to average $2.48. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $6.37 to $22.98, SoCal Citygate advanced $8.11 to average $26.62 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.78 to average $18.30. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 28¢ to $2.80 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Pipeline operator Targa Resources plans to shell out $1.05 billion in cash for the remaining stake in its key Grand Prix natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline and become the system’s sole owner. Targa said Monday it would acquire the remaining 25% interest from private equity firm Blackstone, which purchased the stake for an undisclosed amount in 2017 while Grand Prix was under development. Targa’s purchase price for the stake includes the cash amount “plus customary working capital adjustments,” according to a release. By taking full ownership of the pipeline, which has capacity to transport up to 1 million barrels per day of NGLs from West Texas, North Texas and Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast, Targa is banking on rising global demand for US NGLs. The deal also gives Targa full ownership of the previously announced Daytona Pipeline, which will expand Grand Prix’s capacity out of the West Texas Permian Basin.

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Proved US natural gas reserves climbed 152.1 trillion cubic feet, or nearly one-third, in 2021 to a record 625.4 Tcf, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration released at the end of 2022. On a state-by-state basis, Alaska accounted for the largest increase at 63.3 Tcf, or just over 41% of the US total increase. In 2020, a pipeline under development that would ferry 3.5 billion cubic feet per day of gas from North Slope production fields across the state to the port of Valdez allowed operators to begin booking previously stranded gas as proved reserves. At 34.3 Tcf and 10 Tcf respectively, proved reserves in Texas and New Mexico showed the second- and third-largest increase of all states, resulting from extensions and discoveries in the Permian and Delaware Basins. In those states, rising gas prices also contributed to the increase in reserves. Proved reserves climbed in 2021 in each of the eight states with the most gas reserves.
Everett Wheeler, Washington

Bidweek Prices

Bidweek Price Table for January 2023
Flow Dates: 1/1-1/31

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderAECOEl Paso BondadEmpressKingsgateWestcoast Station 2-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderAECOEl Paso BondadEmpressKingsgateWestcoast Station 2
Note: Jan 3' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (54), down (26).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 3, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 4, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 3, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)3.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.8Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 30 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 3 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 30 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
50635637735330428624817865Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3(MMcf/d)050100150200250300350400450500550Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
27 Dec 2228 Dec 2229 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 234000500060007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600027 Dec 2228 Dec 2229 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500160025 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000550024 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)60080010001200140016001800200022002400260024 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
30125423721922425621719328December29December30December31December1 January2 January3 January4 January05010015020025030035028December29December30December31December1 January2 January3 January4 JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 14°
Orlando 8°
Boston 7°
Washington 21°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 20°
Nashville 27°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 14°
Denver -12°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 18°
Southeast US
New York 14°
Orlando 8°
Boston 7°
Washington 21°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 20°
Nashville 27°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 14°
Denver -12°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 18°

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