December 30, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February 2023 gas futures fell 8.4¢ Friday to $4.475 per million Btu, capping off a three-day, 80.7¢ decline to end the year and demonstrating the gas market bears' firm grip on the market until another bout of cold weather arrives. That might happen in the middle of next month. Analysts estimate the last incursion of arctic air that blanketed the US shut in about 100 billion cubic feet of production, contributing to likely back-to-back 200-plus Bcf pulls from working storage inventories to round out 2022. Even so, if mild weather lingers in the back half of January 2023, prices could tumble further.

The 12-month strip slipped 1.1¢ lower to $4.296; the 2024 strip edged 1.1¢ higher to $4.271 (Futures contracts).

* * *

White River Hub saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $11.09 to $14.75. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 21¢ at $3.51. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 60¢ to average $2.82, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 69¢ to average $2.94. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $2.64 to average $-3.71. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $2.75 to $16.61, SoCal Citygate advanced $3.49 to average $18.51 and Northwest Sumas gained $5.95 to average $15.52. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 24¢ to $3.08 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count held at 779 last week, up 193 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs climbed one to 156, up 50 from a year ago, while oil rigs dropped one to 621, up 141 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 60 rigs to 353, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 27 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 23 at 72 (Rig counts).

* * *

Notice to Subscribers: There will be no issue of Gas Market Reconnaissance published on January 2, 2023. The next issue will be dated January 3, 2023.
Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
White River HubEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanNW RockiesTetco M2Transco Leidy LineTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha Hub-300%-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%White River HubEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanNW RockiesTetco M2Transco Leidy LineTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha Hub
Note: Dec 30' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (23), down (58).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 30, 2022 / Flow Dates: Jan. 1-3, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLCTrunkline Gas Co.0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLCTrunkline Gas Co.

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 30, '22
Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24($/MMBtu)3.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.866.2Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 29 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Dec 30 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 30 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 29 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
806669828733506356377353304Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
23 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 2228 Dec 2229 Dec 2240005000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500023 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 2228 Dec 2229 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500160021 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000550020 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)60080010001200140016001800200022002400260020 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
55948443535530125425821624 December25 December26 December27 December28 December29 December30 December31 December05010015020025030035040045050055060024 December25 December26 December27 December28 December29 December30 December31 DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 1°
Boston 15°
Washington 4°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 17°
Denver 0°
Austin 6°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 1°
Boston 15°
Washington 4°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 17°
Denver 0°
Austin 6°
Atlanta 1°

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