December 29, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures fell 12.6¢ to $4.559 per million Btu, as forecasts for mild weather through early January 2023 overshadowed an above-consensus draw from storage — the largest of the season. Next week's data could show another stout draw, as there were nearly 100 billion cubic feet of production freeze-offs during last week's winter storm. But "until the major forecast models begin to offer more clarity on the next bout of winter cold, NYMEX natural gas futures will likely have to cope with additional selling pressure," Gelber & Associates analysts wrote. "However, when the forecast models show solid evidence of a pattern reversal, ... prices will likely rally, which may coincide with the mid-January return of the Freeport LNG export facility."

The 12-month strip fell 7.6¢ to $4.306; the 2024 strip slipped 3.1¢ to $4.260 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso Permian saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.78 to $-1.10. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 33¢ at $3.72. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York fell $1.72 to average $3.42, while Boston-area Algonquin averaged $3.64. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $1.72 to average $-1.07. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $5.29 to $13.86, SoCal Citygate declined $6.28 to average $15.02 and Northwest Sumas gained 69¢ to average $9.56. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 22¢ to $3.32 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 213 Bcf storage draw for the week ended Dec. 23, decreasing net working gas inventories to 3,112 Bcf. The pull compares with a five-year average draw of 106 Bcf and a year-ago pull of 125 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average climbed to 85 Bcf, or 2.7%. The deficit to last year reached 133 Bcf, or 4.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 220 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average withdrawal of 98 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) announced Wednesday they will open a joint inquiry into the operations of the US bulk power system that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott, during which millions of customers lost power. "Although most of these outages were due to weather impacts on electric distribution facilities operated by local utilities, utilities in parts of the southeast were forced to engaged in rolling blackouts and the bulk-power system in other regions was significantly stressed," FERC said. "FERC, NERC and Regional Entities will work with other federal agencies, states, and utilities to identify problems with the performance of the bulk-power system and, where appropriate, recommend solutions for addressing those issues."

The storm's severe temperatures snarled pipelines and froze wells to shut in more than 18 billion cubic feet per day of gas production, according to estimates from PointLogic Energy. PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for 65 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia, appealed to customers to conserve electricity on Dec. 24-25.

"In addition to the load shedding in Tennessee and the Carolinas, multiple energy emergencies were declared and new demand records were set across the continent. And this was in the early weeks of a projected 'mild' winter," NERC CEO Jim Robb said. "This storm underscores the increasing frequency of significant extreme weather events (the fifth major winter event in the last 11 years) and underscores the need for the electric sector to change its planning scenarios and preparations for extreme events."

* * *

Price notice:

Due to revisions by data providers, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For trade day Dec. 22, 2022, at Dracut, the revised pricing is: Low: $29.00; High: $30.00; Average: $29.22; Volume: 13,655 and Deals: 4.

For trade day Dec. 23, 2022, at Oneok, the revised pricing is: Low: $6.30; High: $7.75; Average: $6.87; Volume: 46,600 and Deals: 10.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2OneokNGPL-TexOkNW SumasNGPL-South TexasTransco Z6 - Non-NYPG&E SouthTranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso Permian-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%Westcoast Station 2OneokNGPL-TexOkNW SumasNGPL-South TexasTransco Z6 - Non-NYPG&E SouthTranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso Permian
Note: Dec 29' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (5), down (72).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 29, 2022 / Flow Dates: Dec. 30-31, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLCTrunkline Gas Co.051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLCTrunkline Gas Co.
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 29, '22
Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24($/MMBtu)44.555.566.5Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 28 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Dec 29, '22
66%77%67%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 29 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 28 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
835806669828733506356377353Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28Dec 29NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
22 Dec 2223 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 2228 Dec 2240005000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500022 Dec 2223 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 2228 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160020 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000550019 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400260019 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
50055948443535530127626823 December24 December25 December26 December27 December28 December29 December30 December05010015020025030035040045050055060023 December24 December25 December26 December27 December28 December29 December30 DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -3°
Boston 9°
Washington -3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 7°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 4°
Las Vegas 3°
Detroit 9°
Denver 1°
Austin 12°
Atlanta -7°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -3°
Boston 9°
Washington -3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 7°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 4°
Las Vegas 3°
Detroit 9°
Denver 1°
Austin 12°
Atlanta -7°

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