December 28, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January gas futures fell 57.3¢ Wednesday to roll off the board at $4.709/MMBtu, culminating a $2.26 collapse since Dec. 15. The February contract, now in the lead position, fell 43.3¢ to $4.685/MMBtu. The contract fell even as one of the worst winter storms in decades enveloped the eastern US; however, traders appeared more impressed with the warmup to follow that could last well into January. The 12-month strip fell 22.9¢ to $4.344; the 2024 calendar strip was off 6.4¢ to $4.291 (Futures contracts).

WTI February crude fell 57¢ to $78.96/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much larger-than-normal 201 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Dec. 23 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 3,124 Bcf, about 2.3% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 106 Bcf and the year-ago pull of 125 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 233, above the 180 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Dec. 30 are for a 220 Bcf withdrawal, with a range from 142 Bcf to 290 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 98 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 46 Bcf.

* * *

Moderating temperatures continued to pressure cash prices, with the Northeast's Iroquois Zone 2 seeing the most significant price move of the day, falling $8.34 to $4.73. Transco zone 6 New York averaged $5.14. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 83¢ at $4.06. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 52¢ to average 66¢/MMBtu. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $5.99 to $19.15, SoCal Citygate declined $8.20 to average $21.29 and Northwest Sumas lost $12.70 to average $8.87. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 74¢ to $3.54 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Sempra has entered into a long-term sale and purchase agreement with RWE Supply & Trading, a subsidiary of Germany utility RWE, for the supply of 2.25 million tons per year of LNG (308 MMcf/d) from the proposed Port Arthur LNG, Phase 1. Port Arthur, Phase 1 is a fully-permitted, two-train, 13.5 million ton/yr year greenfield project on the Texas Gulf Coast, where Sempra expects to make a final investment decision in the first quarter of 2023. First cargo deliveries are expected in 2027. The deal finalizes an Heads of Agreement between the companies reached in May with the same deal parameters.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Carthage Hub    El Paso San JuanNW SumasEl Paso BondadTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Carthage Hub    El Paso San JuanNW SumasEl Paso BondadTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2
Note: Dec 28' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (75).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 28, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 29, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.05101520253035404550556065Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 28, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.57Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 27 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 28 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 27 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
898835806669828733506356377Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25Dec 26Dec 27Dec 28NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
21 Dec 2222 Dec 2223 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 225000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500021 Dec 2222 Dec 2223 Dec 2224 Dec 2225 Dec 2226 Dec 2227 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500(MMcf/d)50060070080090010001100120013001400150019 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500018 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240018 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
41950055948443535531627722December23December24December25December26December27December28December29December05010015020025030035040045050055060022December23December24December25December26December27December28December29DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando -9°
Boston -3°
Washington -7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -11°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 6°
Las Vegas 11°
Detroit 0°
Denver 14°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -12°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando -9°
Boston -3°
Washington -7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -11°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 6°
Las Vegas 11°
Detroit 0°
Denver 14°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -12°

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