December 23, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The January gas futures contract rose 8¢ Friday to $5.079/MMBtu, possibly due to Freeport LNG reiterating that operations could be in full swing come January. Nonetheless, the contract is still down $1.827 for the week even as one of the coldest fronts in decades barreled across the US, sending heating loads soaring and day-ahead spot prices with it. The 12-month strip rose 1.1¢ to $4.52; the 2024 calendar strip fell 6.9¢ to $4.327 (Futures contracts).

WTI February crude jumped $2.07 to $79.56/bbl.

* * *

The Northeast's Iroquois saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $5.09 to $14.07. Also in the region, Transco zone 6 New York went up $1.71 to average $36.71, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $5.09 to average $35.55. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 99¢ at $6.14. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $2.21 to average $5.25. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 97¢ to $34.30 and SoCal Citygate advanced $1.61 to average $37.87. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 61¢ to $4.46 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The planned restart of Freeport LNG has slid into 2023, as volatile gas markets eagerly watch for the return of the US export facility. "Given the time needed for the regulatory agencies to review the company's responses and to seek any necessary clarification, Freeport LNG now does not anticipate commencing the initial restart of its liquefaction facility until the second half of January 2023," the company said in a statement Friday. Last month, Freeport predicted a mid-December restart that would allow operations to ramp up in January to take 2 billion cubic feet per day of feedgas — enough to support the plant's 15 million tons per year liquefaction capacity.

* * *

Editor's note: Gas Market Reconnaissance will not publish on Dec. 26 in observance of the Christmas holiday. It will resume publication on Dec. 27.
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 23, '22
Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.5Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 22 '22

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 23, '22
Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.5Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 22 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Dec 22 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 23 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 22 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
922105912581068729898835806669Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
16 Dec 2217 Dec 2218 Dec 2219 Dec 2220 Dec 2221 Dec 2222 Dec 22400050006000700080009000100001100012000130001400016 Dec 2217 Dec 2218 Dec 2219 Dec 2220 Dec 2221 Dec 2222 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500(MMcf/d)5006007008009001000110014 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500013 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220013 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
35339639937240441950055917 December18 December19 December20 December21 December22 December23 December24 December05010015020025030035040045050055060017 December18 December19 December20 December21 December22 December23 December24 DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -8°
Orlando -4°
Boston 7°
Washington -8°
Seattle -9°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville -42°
Minneapolis -32°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -18°
Denver -36°
Austin -32°
Atlanta -20°
Southeast US
New York -8°
Orlando -4°
Boston 7°
Washington -8°
Seattle -9°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville -42°
Minneapolis -32°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -18°
Denver -36°
Austin -32°
Atlanta -20°

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