December 22, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January gas futures fell 33.3¢ to $4.999/MMBtu on Thursday. The last time the prompt month contract settled under $5/MMBtu was a one-day dip on Oct. 21. The contract has fallen more than $1.90 over five sessions in a rout that apparently began with funds liquidating large long positions, but was sustained by expectations that the current deep freeze will be short-lived. The 12-month brief fell 34.2¢ to $4.531; the 2024 calendar brief lost 14.5¢ to $4.396 (Futures contracts).

WTI February crude fell 80¢ to $77.49/bbl.

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported an 87 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 16, bringing the volume of working gas in storage to 3,325 Bcf. The pull failed to meet expectations for a 93 Bcf draw based on heating degree days for the week. It was also 37 Bcf shy of the five-year average, closing the seasonal deficit for a second time this winter. Storage is now 22 Bcf, or 0.7%, above seasonal averages. However, inventories are still 45 Bcf, or 1.3%, behind this time last year. Analysts' consensus is for a 188 Bcf draw for the week ending Dec. 23, much higher than the 106 five-year average (Storage).

* * *

The Mid-Atlantic's Transco Zone 5 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $53.92 to $61.56. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up $1.11 at $7.13. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up $28.81 to average $35.00, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $23.88 to average $30.47. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 99¢ to average $7.46. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $17.86 to $33.33, SoCal Citygate declined $11.78 to average $36.26 and Northwest Sumas lost $20.86 to average $31.67. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 13¢ to $5.06 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

A deep freeze in Texas over the weekend will test if new state regulations adopted this summer will be able to hold off a cold-weather disaster of the type that brought down much of the Texas electricity grid in February 2021. That cold snap froze up natural gas wells and pipelines feeding into power plants, diminishing supply as demand spiked — forcing Texas’ grid operator, ERCOT, to reduce power generation to stave off a complete grid collapse. More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power over several days as temperatures plunged to record lows and water, food and heat became scarce. More than 200 people died as a result.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 5Transco Z6 - NYTetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYAlgonquinCIGNW RockiesEl Paso BondadNB Ventura TPNNG Demarc-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%Transco Zone 5Transco Z6 - NYTetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYAlgonquinCIGNW RockiesEl Paso BondadNB Ventura TPNNG Demarc
Note: Dec 22' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (46), down (37).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 22, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 23, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLCTrunkline GasCo.
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 22, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.58Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 21 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Dec 22, '22
70%84%72%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 22 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 21 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
956922105912581068729898835806Dec 14Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200Dec 14Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
15 Dec 2216 Dec 2217 Dec 2218 Dec 2219 Dec 2220 Dec 2221 Dec 22500060007000800090001000011000120001300015 Dec 2216 Dec 2217 Dec 2218 Dec 2219 Dec 2220 Dec 2221 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec(MW)05001000150020002500300035004000450050005500(MMcf/d)50060070080090010001100120013 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500012 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220012 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
31335339639937240440447916December17December18December19December20December21December22December23December05010015020025030035040045050016December17December18December19December20December21December22December23DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 6°
Boston 0°
Washington 5°
Seattle -21°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville -14°
Minneapolis -30°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit -2°
Denver -46°
Austin -14°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 6°
Boston 0°
Washington 5°
Seattle -21°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville -14°
Minneapolis -30°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit -2°
Denver -46°
Austin -14°
Atlanta -1°

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