December 14, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January gas futures unexpectedly reversed course Wednesday, falling 50.5¢ to $6.43/MMBtu. The stage had been set for a move above $7/MMBtu amid a five-session, $1.466 rally as frigid air envelops the eastern US. There were hints that the advance could be stymied, however — especially a seeming reluctance to close above $7. Whether that was due to hedge funds defending large short positions or the market waiting to see if bitterly cold forecasts verify will soon become clearer. Expected storage data remain bearish for the next two reports, but this arctic system will linger and could produce a late month drawdown of more than 400 Bcf, Gelber & Associates predicts. The 12-month strip fell 26.4¢ to $5.49; the 2024 calendar strip was down 6¢ to $4.669 (Futures contracts).

WTI January crude rose $1.89 to $77.28/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 45 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Dec. 9 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 3,417 Bcf, about 0.3% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 93 Bcf and the year-ago pull of 83 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 137, below the 160 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Dec. 16 are for an 89 Bcf withdrawal, with a range from 44 Bcf to 101 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 124 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 60 Bcf.

* * *

Northern California's PG&E Citygate saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $28.04 to $22.09. In Southern California, the SoCal Citygate declined $23.06 to average $27.07. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 59¢ at $6.58. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down $3.56 to average $8.29, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $11.30 to average $10.39. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub were flat to average $3.97. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $20.12 to $26.62 and Northwest Sumas lost $21.27 to average $25.19. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 11¢ to $4.67.
(Daily cash prices).

* * *

Researchers in the US have made a key scientific breakthrough in nuclear fusion that experts say is a critical milestone toward one day being able to harness a potentially limitless source of clean power for commercial use. Fusion energy is still likely decades away from contributing any meaningful volumes of power to the electric grid, but the results revealed this week out of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California showed that a technology known as inertial confinement fusion can create more energy from fusion than the laser energy used to drive it. The fusion reaction was sparked by a giant laser firing 192 beams into contained hydrogen isotopes. It produced about 3.15 megajoules of fusion energy from “deposited energy” of just 2.05 MJ.
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso San JuanCenterPoint EastWestcoast Station 2  StanfieldMalinAlgonquinPG&E SouthPG&E Citygate-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%El Paso San JuanCenterPoint EastWestcoast Station 2  StanfieldMalinAlgonquinPG&E SouthPG&E Citygate
Note: Dec 14' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (3), down (74).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 14, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 15, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 14, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.6Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 13 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 14 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 13 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
1156130112931166122712261076954956Dec 6Dec 7Dec 8Dec 9Dec 10Dec 11Dec 12Dec 13Dec 14(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Dec 6Dec 7Dec 8Dec 9Dec 10Dec 11Dec 12Dec 13Dec 14NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
7 Dec 22 8 Dec 22 9 Dec 2210 Dec 2211 Dec 2212 Dec 2213 Dec 2240005000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000 7 Dec 22 8 Dec 22 9 Dec 2210 Dec 2211 Dec 2212 Dec 2213 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2502712892652903263223068December9December10December11December12December13December14December15December0501001502002503003508December9December10December11December12December13December14December15DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -6°
Orlando 5°
Boston -6°
Washington -7°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 13°
Los Angeles -7°
Las Vegas -8°
Detroit 2°
Denver -4°
Austin 7°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York -6°
Orlando 5°
Boston -6°
Washington -7°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 13°
Los Angeles -7°
Las Vegas -8°
Detroit 2°
Denver -4°
Austin 7°
Atlanta -2°

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