December 13, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

January natural gas futures rose 34.8¢ Tuesday to $6.935/MMBtu as a major short squeeze continues ahead of an arctic blast set to envelop eastern US markets. The January prompt month is now up $1.466 in five-sessions as bears, faced with at least three weeks of often brutal cold, continue to lose ground. The 12-month strip rose 26.2¢ to $5.754; the 2024 calendar strip was up 7.4¢ to $4.729 (Futures contracts).

WTI January crude rose $2.22 to $75.39/bbl. WTI's two-session $4.77 gain comes as the market bulls up in part from the Keystone Pipeline outage and geopolitical developments in Russia and China.

* * *

El Paso Permian in West Texas saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $4.19 to $4.26. The Permian's Waha Hub rose $3.56 to average $3.98. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 44¢ at $7.17. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up $2.35 to average $11.85, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $2.63 to average $21.69. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $6.55 to $46.74, SoCal Citygate advanced $6.24 to average $50.14 and Northwest Sumas gained $7.35 to average $46.46. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 23¢ to $4.78 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Combined gas output from the seven major US shale plays is expected to increase by 535 MMcf/d in January to reach a record 96.28 Bcf/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Drilling Productivity Report for December. Gains are expected in every basin, with the largest increase — 152 MMcf/d — seen in the Haynesville, bringing output to a record 16.4 Bcf/d. As Appalachia cranks up for winter, the Northeast basin is seen growing 113 MMcf/d to 33.5 Bcf/d, which is still about 0.5 Bcf/d shy of the December 2021 record. Associated gas in the Permian Basin is expected to reach new highs, rising 119 MMcf/d to almost 21.4 Bcf/d, testifying more to the vitality of oil production than the need for gas.
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso PermianTranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubIroquois Zone 2Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan    Millennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts0%1000%2000%3000%4000%5000%6000%El Paso PermianTranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubIroquois Zone 2Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan    Millennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts
Note: Dec 13' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (77), down (1).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 13, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 14, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
AlgonquinGasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl PasoNatural GasKern RiverGasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennesseeGas PipelineCo.TexasEasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560AlgonquinGasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl PasoNatural GasKern RiverGasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennesseeGas PipelineCo.TexasEasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 13, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.87Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 12 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 13 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 12 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
11541156130112931166122712261076954Dec 5Dec 6Dec 7Dec 8Dec 9Dec 10Dec 11Dec 12Dec 13(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Dec 5Dec 6Dec 7Dec 8Dec 9Dec 10Dec 11Dec 12Dec 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
6 Dec 22 7 Dec 22 8 Dec 22 9 Dec 2210 Dec 2211 Dec 2212 Dec 2240005000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000 6 Dec 22 7 Dec 22 8 Dec 22 9 Dec 2210 Dec 2211 Dec 2212 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2142502712892652903253197December8December9December10December11December12December13December14December0501001502002503003507December8December9December10December11December12December13December14DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -6°
Orlando 2°
Boston -4°
Washington -5°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 12°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit 0°
Denver -9°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 3°
Southeast US
New York -6°
Orlando 2°
Boston -4°
Washington -5°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 12°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit 0°
Denver -9°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 3°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com