December 7, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January gas futures rose 25.4¢ Wednesday to $5.723/MMBtu as a significantly oversold market clawed back some of the previous five sessions' $1.766 loss. Bearish optics may have prevented a stronger reversal as mild conditions last week are expected to result in a relatively small storage withdrawal, and the eastern US may not see seasonably cold weather until mid-month. The 12-month strip rose 15.8¢ to $5.032; the 2024 calendar strip was up 2.2¢ to $4.559 (Futures contracts).

WTI January crude fell $2.07 to $72.18/bbl, forfeiting all gains made since Russia invaded Ukraine as economists brace for weakened worldwide growth in part due to high energy costs. Wednesday's losses were driven by bigger-than-expected increases in US fuel stocks.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 31 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Dec. 2 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 3,452 Bcf, about 1.9% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 49 Bcf and the year-ago pull of 59 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 142, below the 146 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Dec. 9 are for a 42 Bcf withdrawal, with a range from 22 Bcf to 70 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 83 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 93 Bcf.

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The Pacific Northwest's Stanfield saw the most significant price move of the day, soaring $10.76 to $21.02. Northwest Sumas gained $5.07 to average $21.38. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 3¢ at $4.51. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 57¢ to average $4.53, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 82¢ to average $4.84. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 37¢ to average 10¢/MMBtu. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $4.39 to $21.05 and SoCal Citygate advanced $5.47 to average $23.20. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 9¢ to $3.58 (Daily cash prices).

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Natural gas has made major inroads in power generation over the past 20 years by usurping coal’s market share, which peaked in 2007. An EIA report shows coal dominated power production in 32 states in 2001, more than double today’s 15 states in which coal generates more power than any other energy source. Meanwhile, the number of states in which natural gas is the largest source of in-state electricity generation has tripled -– from seven to 23 -- over the period. That sea change was most striking in the Northeast and Southeast US, where coal has all but been supplanted by a mix of gas and renewables.

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Price notice: Due to revisions by data providers, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For trade day Nov. 29, 2022 at Waha, the revised pricing is: Low: $4.90; High: $6.35; Average: $5.35; Volume: 132,400 and Deals: 26.

For trade day Dec. 1, 2022 at Panhandle, the revised pricing is: Low: $5.17; High: $5.22; Average: $5.19; Volume: 88,100 and Deals: 17.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
StanfieldNW SumasSoCal CitygateKern River / OpalEl Paso - South MainlineAECOOneokNW RockiesEl Paso PermianWaha Hub-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%StanfieldNW SumasSoCal CitygateKern River / OpalEl Paso - South MainlineAECOOneokNW RockiesEl Paso PermianWaha Hub
Note: Dec 7' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (56), down (23).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 7, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 8, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 7, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.2Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 6 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 7 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 6 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
771766756713969973115411561301Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2Dec 3Dec 4Dec 5Dec 6Dec 7(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2Dec 3Dec 4Dec 5Dec 6Dec 7NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
30 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 2 Dec 22 3 Dec 22 4 Dec 22 5 Dec 22 6 Dec 2270008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800030 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 2 Dec 22 3 Dec 22 4 Dec 22 5 Dec 22 6 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)4006008001000120014001600180028 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)15002000250030003500400027 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400260027 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec 6 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
3342842423022832452062281December2December3December4December5December6December7December8December0501001502002503003501December2December3December4December5December6December7December8DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 15°
Orlando 6°
Boston 19°
Washington 17°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 20°
Nashville 24°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 15°
Denver 2°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 16°
Southeast US
New York 15°
Orlando 6°
Boston 19°
Washington 17°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 20°
Nashville 24°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 15°
Denver 2°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 16°

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