December 6, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January gas futures continued to sag Tuesday, falling 10.8¢ to $5.469/MMBtu. Mild weather and robust production is behind the $1.766 five-session dive; however, some forecasts see colder weather returning to the eastern US in about a week. The 12-month strip fell 9.9¢ to $4.874; the 2024 calendar strip was down 9¢ to $4.537 (Futures contracts).

WTI crude lost $2.68 Tuesday to $74.25/bbl. Oil has taken a $6.97 three-session tumble as global demand concerns grow.

* * *

In a boxed-in Permian Basin, the Waha Hub saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 38¢ to 47¢/MMBtu. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 35¢ at $4.48. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 2¢ to average $3.97, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 22¢ to average $4.02. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 38¢ to $16.66, SoCal Citygate declined $1.25 to average $17.73 and Northwest Sumas lost 55¢ to average $16.31. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco was flat at $3.66 (Daily cash prices).


* * *

The Energy Information Administration expects natural gas prices to average more than $6/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2023, up from November’s monthly average of about $5.50/MMBtu. However, it also expects prices to begin declining in February as “US storage levels move closer to the previous five-year average, largely as a result of rising US natural gas production.” The EIA estimated that US domestic dry gas output topped 101 Bcf/dlast week.
* * *
Sempra and France's Engie have penned a 15-year, free-on-board supply agreement that will deliver 875,000 tons per year of LNG from Phase 1 of Sempra's Port Arthur export project in Texas, which is eyeing first gas in 2027. The agreement for 120 million cubic feet of gas per day comes hot on the heels of Sempra's deal with Ineos last week for 1.4 million tons/yr (192 MMcf/d) from the facility over a 20-year term. With the Engie deal, Sempra is now one step closer to reaching a final investment decision on the greenfield project in the first quarter of 2023. Engie and Ineos' willingness to pen sufficiently long-duration agreements for LNG that is still years from starting up speaks to a growing acceptance among European buyers that replacing Russian gas will require supply commitments that extend into the 2030s.




Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Waha HubEl Paso PermianWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadSoCal CitygateSoCal BorderKingsgateStanfieldTranswes E of Thoreau-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%Waha HubEl Paso PermianWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadSoCal CitygateSoCal BorderKingsgateStanfieldTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Dec 6' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (42), down (39).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 6, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 7, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 6, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.44.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.6Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 5 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 6 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 5 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
80477176675671396997311541156Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2Dec 3Dec 4Dec 5Dec 6(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2Dec 3Dec 4Dec 5Dec 6NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
29 Nov 2230 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 2 Dec 22 3 Dec 22 4 Dec 22 5 Dec 228000900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800029 Nov 2230 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 2 Dec 22 3 Dec 22 4 Dec 22 5 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)4006008001000120014001600180027 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)15002000250030003500400027 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 DecWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400260026 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec 2 Dec 3 Dec 4 Dec 5 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
28333428424230228323520130November1 December2 December3 December4 December5 December6 December7 December05010015020025030035030November1 December2 December3 December4 December5 December6 December7 DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 6°
Boston 7°
Washington 3°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 8°
Denver 8°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 10°
Southeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 6°
Boston 7°
Washington 3°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 8°
Denver 8°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 10°

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