December 2, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January 2023 gas futures dropped 45.7¢ Friday to $6.281 per million Btu Friday amid ambiguous weather outlooks. Analog weather models, which compare current climate and atmospheric observations to past weather events to provide an idea of what might unfold, suggest severe winter temperatures could materialize later this month. If that happens, it could push prices more than $2 higher, according to Gelber & Associates analysts. For now, major weather forecasts aren't predicting an incursion of Arctic air, and traders are more focused on loosening fundamentals, including a lighter-than-normal storage draw predicted for next week that is expected to trim working gas storage's deficit to the five-year average.

The 2023 strip fell 32.5¢ to $5.348; the 2024 strip declined 7.2¢ to $4.707 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Rockies saw the most significant cash price move of the day, falling $9.85 to $5.40. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down $1.35 at $4.82. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 35¢ to average $5.29, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 4¢ to average $6.14. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $1.96 to average $2.96. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $3.78 to $13.54, SoCal Citygate declined $2.05 to average $17.12 and Northwest Sumas lost $2.17 to average $16.77. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 62¢ to $4.07 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count held at 784 last week, up 215 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs climbed remained at 155, up 53 from a year ago, while oil rigs remained at 627, up 160 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 67 rigs to 350, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 29 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 23 at 69 (Rig counts).

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Iroquois Zone 2    Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadWhite River HubNW Rockies-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%Iroquois Zone 2    Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadWhite River HubNW Rockies
Note: Dec 2' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (77).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Dec. 2, 2022 / Flow Dates: Dec. 3-5, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0102030405060Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Dec 2, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.8Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Dec 1 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Dec 2 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Dec 2 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Dec 1 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
13471083961987804771766756713Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30Dec 1Dec 2NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
25 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 2229 Nov 2230 Nov 22 1 Dec 22700080009000100001100012000130001400025 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 2229 Nov 2230 Nov 22 1 Dec 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180023 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 DecCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 Dec(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)120014001600180020002200240022 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov30 Nov 1 DecPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
22321122628128333428624126November27November28November29November30November1December2December3December05010015020025030035026November27November28November29November30November1December2December3DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -4°
Orlando 5°
Boston -2°
Washington -4°
Seattle -11°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit -4°
Denver 6°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -5°
Southeast US
New York -4°
Orlando 5°
Boston -2°
Washington -4°
Seattle -11°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit -4°
Denver 6°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -5°

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