November 30, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January 2023 gas futures fell 30.5¢ to $6.930 per million Btu after the US House of Representatives voted 290-137 to approve a measure that would head off a looming nationwide railroad strike. If approved by the Senate, the bill will be signed by President Biden, who has called on the Senate to act quickly. The strike — now apparently less likely — could disrupt coal shipments and boost natural gas power burn. For now, temperature outlooks take center stage. “At this juncture, it is challenging to defend NYMEX gas futures prices that have risen more than 60% compared to a year ago when the current storage deficit versus 2021 is sitting at about the same levels,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “If the weather models see a pullback in colder than average temperatures, it would set the stage for a decline in NYMEX January gas futures down to the $6.50s.” But “a massive amount of Arctic air … could trigger a massive short-covering rally and buying spree to send prices well above $8.00/MMBtu.”

The 2023 strip fell 8.7¢ to $5.709; the 2024 strip edged 0.9¢ higher to $4.781 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Boston-area Algonquin saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $3.31 to $9.87. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 69¢ at $6.70. Elsewhere in the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 49¢ to average $6.76. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 27¢ to average $5.10. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $2.34 to $16.03, SoCal Citygate advanced $5.05 to average $19.23 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.56 to average $16.57. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 2¢ to $5.23 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 84 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Nov. 25 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 3,480 Bcf, about 2.5% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 34 Bcf and the year-ago pull of 54 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 154, above the 132 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Dec. 2 are for a 40 Bcf withdrawal, with a range from 15 Bcf to 56 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 59 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 49 Bcf.

***

After a 14-year legal battle, Appalachian gas driller Corterra Energy has agreed to pay a $16.29 million fine for contaminating well water in Dimock, Pennsylvaniamoney that will go toward building a new water supply system for the community. Corterra, formerly Cabot Oil & Gas, this week pleaded no contest to charges of environmental crimes, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro said. Shapiro's office charged Corterra in 2020 after a grand jury investigation found the company’s gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing activities were responsible for methane pollution in the local water supply. As part of the agreement, Corterra – which has long denied wrongdoing -- will pay 75 years worth of water bills for affected residents. “This agreement brings justice to the residents of Dimock who for years had been ignored,” Shapiro said.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredOneokWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadEl Paso San Juan-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredOneokWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadEl Paso San Juan
Note: Nov 30' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (35), down (47).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 30, 2022 / Flow Date: Dec. 1, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 30, '22
Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.87Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 29 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 30 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 29 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
1640144113471083961987804771766Nov 22Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Nov 22Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29Nov 30NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
23 Nov 2224 Nov 2225 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 2229 Nov 22700080009000100001100012000130001400023 Nov 2224 Nov 2225 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 2229 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180021 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230020 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov29 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
22020622321122628127432924 November25 November26 November27 November28 November29 November30 November1 December05010015020025030035024 November25 November26 November27 November28 November29 November30 November1 DecemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 9°
Orlando 7°
Boston 10°
Washington 5°
Seattle -7°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville -4°
Minneapolis -12°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 4°
Denver -13°
Austin -9°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 9°
Orlando 7°
Boston 10°
Washington 5°
Seattle -7°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville -4°
Minneapolis -12°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 4°
Denver -13°
Austin -9°
Atlanta -1°

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