December 1, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

PSM: Record Net Exports, Demand Over 2019 Levels

  • Net exports of US crude oil and oil products posted a new record in September.
  • Monthly demand in the US exceeds preliminary weekly readings.
  • Crude shipments from US to Europe have decelerated despite the looming EU ban on Russian crude.

US net exports of crude oil and petroleum products touched yet another record in September, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Petroleum Supply Monthly. The world’s largest economy shipped 1.6 million barrels per day more fuels abroad than it imported. In comparison, the US was a net importer of 1.2 b/d last September and 40,000 b/d during the same month in 2019, the last year before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Self-Reliance

While gross exports have climbed fairly steadily, the September record was a function of lower imports. The US took in 6.3 million b/d of crude during the month, the lowest figure since May.

The US continues to raise reliance on own output and flows from near neighbors. Some 3.9 million b/d arrived from Canada, while Mexico was the second-largest foreign supplier at 635,000 b/d. By contrast, imports from Opec members dropped to 862,000 b/d, their lowest since March.

Product imports were close to record lows at 1.7 million b/d and consisted mostly of gasoline blending components, unfinished oils and residual fuel oil.

Exports Wane

Crude exports were slightly lower month-on-month but still robust at 3.5 million b/d, with South Korea the top destination at 506,000 b/d.

The bulk of US crude exports — some 1.7 million b/d — went to the Asia-Pacific. Another 1.3 million b/d went to Europe ahead of the EU’s embargo on Russian crude. However, some market watchers say the flows of US crude to Europe might be reaching a ceiling as the latter region searches for more medium, sour feedstock. To wit, European imports of US crude have dropped three consecutive months.

Product exports were 6.1 million b/d, with 3.2 million b/d going to Latin America and 1.4 million b/d to the Asia-Pacific. Mexico was the top destination at some 1.3 million b/d, mostly gasoline and distillate fuel oils such as diesel and heating oil.

However, at some 2.4 million b/d, natural gas liquids and liquefied petroleum gasses continue to dominate the flow of exports.

Demand

Monthly data continues to trend above preliminary weekly readings, the PSM shows. While weekly figures put September oil demand at just under 20 million b/d, the PSM pegged consumption at almost 20.5 million b/d, down 131,000 b/d from August but above the same month last year. Indeed, September’s oil demand figures outdid those of the same month 2019, marking a breach of pre-pandemic consumption, the first time that has happened since June.

Gasoline and jet fuel demand both dropped from August levels, but consumption of distillates rose over 100,000 b/d to just over 4 million b/d, its highest since March.

US Crude Exports, September 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)Sep'22Sep'2120212020
All Destinations3,5062,5342,9633,206
India695578420281
Netherlands390266286298
Korea355336349269
Canada347398311420
United Kingdom251227233247
China213728256481
Singapore183014391
Italy176124114140
Taiwan16449145158
Switzerland1520144
Spain118248663
France997310281
Germany937278101
Thailand741053776
Uruguay5401717
Dominican Republic36172510
Australia2501329
Norway2424386
Peru24241920
Denmark23243031
Ireland22403943
Brazil19295334
Colombia18181915
Nicaragua101299
Belgium1015
Lithuania04926
Other0-68520

US Petroleum Product Exports, September 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsNGLsNGLsMogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21Sep'22Sep'21
All Destinations6,1125,2382,3032,2181,1158532171091,39393269102570496445528
Mexico1,2771,07220019657346135293492235974704184
Canada54852229129848453416820791331148103
Japan4634593683670000000061503343
China277393185274000000009111811
Brazil352316371939771901861360040273357
Indonesia9916697165000000002000
India1781557912400200000932834
Korea1162069715500000090001051
Chile3171772836532838141827910170073
Peru26312119877381901366410001111
Netherlands1861277438021007610301051272
Dominican Republic9693405124162420103126010
Panama123922241201110553613230010
Guatemala109641454829323527009010
Ecuador1095436350000381000146213
Colombia1051392345615075200004623
Honduras74491872416202023019011
Costa Rica5445742020332117000031
Spain77114700000040066250
Egypt41593459000000005020
France73328000002000002241
Morocco7734612400000000161000
Singapore1015998200000033030043
El Salvador51391316181513175000010
United Kingdom10798465100010390011561819
Bahama Islands433021916113241430000
Other79565538125796252819171158414116135-148
US Petroleum Product Imports, September 2022
CanadaMexicoNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaSouth KoreaUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21
Motor Gasoline931338--8313222164334----6584579899
Other Oils5639485272743019659--21486582
Residual Fuel Oil1828103901108--------------196187
Middle Distillates13996------38--712--2----150268
LPG/Chemicals144133------------------------147135
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel74----------323129--------81222
Asphalt5455-----------------------5460
Lubricants99----21----1188------5036
Petroleum Coke11------------------------97
Grand Total522497158143104174104559618067266861,7532,403
Total Companies522497158143104174104559618067266861,7532,403
Total Imports522499158143104174104559618067266861,7542,409
US Petroleum Product Imports, September 2022
CanadaMexicoNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaSouth KoreaUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21
Valero--5322117--7420--2135--2125285330
Exxon Mobil--2821311538--10----24--212226335
Irving Oil--159------------------------167159
BP--410--1528----1714------6121142
Shell--6--25040------10----1--110152
Saudi Aramco3--7--5724--6--------37149
Phillips 66--6235--2----56----2217059
Atlantic Trading4------58--1513------114756
Chevron----2223--------4----------46116
RIL USA----------------------------3234
Plains--18------------------------3218
George E. Warren Corp----8------5--7----------3156
Vitol--1110--13----------2--13075
Petrogas Energy--33------------------------2833
PMI Trading----2523--------------------2523
Top 157307148949813610445515059--46481,3221,637
Total Companies522497158143104174104559618067266861,7532,403
Total Imports522499158143104174104559618067266861,7542,409
US Crude Oil Imports, September 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaEcuadorIraqBrazilColombiaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21Sep '22Sep '21
Phillips 66447502751107533----------------791877
Marathon380320855620--93--76--48------731410
Chevron32339883561087055902917165027540579
BP462457----------------4328----504508
PBF Energy958612340113555012----2751----408329
Exxon Mobil398400------------------------398413
Valero--20156206----232065--5180----312430
Cenovus Energy248167------------------------248167
Flint Hills227296------------------------227296
Houston Refining20284--73------------------65202222
Saudi Aramco6163----132208----------------193321
Hollyfrontier Refining & Marketing LLC143108------------------------143108
Suncor127123------------------------127123
Canada Imperial115102------------------------115102
PDV Midwest Refining107142------------------------107142
Top 153,0432,902538568396405236872312918617650925,0475,026
Total Companies3,8993,779635671396491236133231291862091621256,2686,526
Total Imports3,8993,779635671396491236133231291862091621256,2686,525

Frans Koster, New York