November 29, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

January 2023 gas futures climbed 3.9¢ Tuesday to $7.235 per million Btu on its first day as prompt month. The contract reached as high as $7.421 mid-morning but survived repeated attempts by bears to pull the contract below $7.10. As the month unfolds, Gelber & Associates analysts expect the market to be volatile amid offsetting fundamentals, including the imminent restart of Freeport LNG, a 2 Bcf/d sink for US production that could reach 103 Bcf/d in 2023. “Higher dry gas production will be counter-balanced by an uptick in LNG export demand in December,” they wrote. “Should the looming railroad worker strike unfold within the next couple of weeks, it could boost natural gas power burn as a replacement for reduced coal stockpiles.” On Monday, President Biden and outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced support for legislation — a means of averting a strike — that would force railroads and unions to adopt the tentative labor agreement reached in September.

The 2023 strip climbed 6.6¢ to $5.796; the 2024 strip climbed 2.9¢ to $4.772 (Futures contracts).

* * *

White River Hub saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $4.61 to $13.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 1¢ at $6.01. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $6.27, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 77¢ to average $6.57. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 9¢ to average $5.38. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $2.29 to $13.69, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.83 to average $14.19 and Northwest Sumas lost $2.56 to average $15.01. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 48¢ to $5.21 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The Biden administration on Monday announced a proposed regulation under which methane waste from oil and gas leases administered by the Bureau of Land Management, covering both federal and Indian land, would be subject to royalties. “This proposed rule will bring our regulations in line with technological advances that industry has made in the decades since the BLM’s rules were first put in place, while providing a fair return to taxpayers,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said. The US Department of the Interior said the proposal is in response to a series of US Government Accountability Office reports “highlighting the potential revenue being lost due to BLM’s outdated regulations.” The rule would require operators to “use all reasonable precautions to prevent the waste of oil or gas” and “to submit a waste minimization plan will applications for permits to drill oil wells.” The rule would also clarify under which circumstances oil and gas would be considered “unavoidably lost” and “establish a monthly volume limit on royalty-free flaring due to pipeline capacity constraints, midstream processing failures, or other similar events.” Once the rule is posted to the Federal Register in the coming days, the government will accept comments on the proposal for 60 days.

***

Labor costs and contractor disputes are causing a “material increase” in the cost of the Coastal GasLink pipeline in British Columbia, owner TC Energy said Tuesday. Drought conditions have also caused delays, the company said. TC Energy did not specify how much costs are rising from the C$11.6 billion (US$8.5 billion) price tag announced earlier this year – nearly twice the original estimate. TC said it expects the 415-mile pipeline, which will serve the LNG Canada export terminal under construction, is 80% complete and will be finished by the end of 2023.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
White River HubEl Paso San JuanSoCal BorderPG&E SouthEl Paso - South Mainline    NW Sumas-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%White River HubEl Paso San JuanSoCal BorderPG&E SouthEl Paso - South Mainline    NW Sumas
Note: Nov 29' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (81), down (1).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 29, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 30, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 29, '22
Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 28 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 29 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 28 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
17461640144113471083961987804771Nov 21Nov 22Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Nov 21Nov 22Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25Nov 26Nov 27Nov 28Nov 29NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
22 Nov 2223 Nov 2224 Nov 2225 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 227000800090001000011000120001300022 Nov 2223 Nov 2224 Nov 2225 Nov 2226 Nov 2227 Nov 2228 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180020 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
19 Nov20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230019 Nov20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23 Nov24 Nov25 Nov26 Nov27 Nov28 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
22722020622321122627225523November24November25November26November27November28November29November30November05010015020025023November24November25November26November27November28November29November30NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 3°
Boston 0°
Washington 2°
Seattle -10°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 6°
Denver -15°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 2°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 3°
Boston 0°
Washington 2°
Seattle -10°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit 6°
Denver -15°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 2°

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