November 21, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch


December natural gas futures jumped 47.3¢, or more than 7%, on Monday to $6.776 per million Btu, prompted not only by unusually strong early winter heating demand but the renewed threat that a railroad worker strike could interrupt coal shipments to power plants. But how either of these factors will play out isn’t clear. Congress could intervene to avert a strike, and forecasts are fairly clear that the cold wave should begin to abate by the weekend. The 12-month strip rose 23¢ to $5.633; the 2023 calendar strip was up 19.8¢ to $5.545 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude lost 35¢ to roll off the board at $79.73/bbl. The expiring contract recovered from a morning low of $75.08. The new January prompt month closed at $80.04/bbl.
* * *

As cold begins to abate in the Northeast, Iroquois Zone 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $3.15 to $9.45. Elsewhere in the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down $1.08 to average $7.05, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 61¢ to average $10.71. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 17¢ at $6.25. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 27¢ to average $4.94. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 85¢ to $8.85, SoCal Citygate advanced 85¢ to average $9.45 and Northwest Sumas gained 58¢ to average $8.95. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 51¢ to $5.13 (Daily cash prices).
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Regulators continue to put reliability ahead of ambitious renewables goals in California, this time delaying the decommissioning of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. Pacific Gas & Electric had planned to close the 2,240 megawatt capacity plant by shuttering unit 1 in 2024 and unit 2 in 2025. Instead it will receive $1.1 billion from the Department of Energy’s $6 billion Civil Nuclear Credit program as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. By 2030, 60% of the state's power is to be generated by renewables, so it is doubtful that the equivalent of 375 million cubic feet per day of gas burns would have replaced Diablo Canyon. Nonetheless, natural gas still provides roughly 40% of the power generated by the state’s utilities and four gas plants were put on reserve last year rather than retired as planned.

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The largest producer in the gas-rich Barnett Shale of North Texas has filed to go public, according to documents filed last week with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. If launched, BKV’s initial public offering would ostensibly be the highest-profile shale market debut since Vine Energy in March 2021. A registration statement filed with the SEC last week did not give a price for the BKV stock. The company pegged its production at 864 MMcf/d at the end of September, 79% of which was gas. BKV, which is based in Denver and backed by Thai utility Banpu, entered the Barnett through its 2020 acquisition of Devon Energy's footprint.
Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
PG&E SouthTransco Station 30Westcoast Station 2PG&E CitygateNW RockiesTransco Zone 5Transco Z6 - NYTetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYIroquois Zone 2-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%PG&E SouthTransco Station 30Westcoast Station 2PG&E CitygateNW RockiesTransco Zone 5Transco Z6 - NYTetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYIroquois Zone 2
Note: Nov 21' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (74), down (9).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 21, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 22, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550556065Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 21, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.57Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 18 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 21 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 18 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
244622832242231521432074206419851746Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17Nov 18Nov 19Nov 20Nov 21(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17Nov 18Nov 19Nov 20Nov 21NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
14 Nov 2215 Nov 2216 Nov 2217 Nov 2218 Nov 2219 Nov 2220 Nov 2240006000800010000120001400016000180002000014 Nov 2215 Nov 2216 Nov 2217 Nov 2218 Nov 2219 Nov 2220 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150012 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)1000120014001600180020002200240011 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
30127832034334436430826715November16November17November18November19November20November21November22November05010015020025030035040015November16November17November18November19November20November21November22NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -10°
Orlando -1°
Boston -8°
Washington -8°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -10°
Nashville -10°
Minneapolis -1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -5°
Denver -3°
Austin -20°
Atlanta -8°
Southeast US
New York -10°
Orlando -1°
Boston -8°
Washington -8°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -10°
Nashville -10°
Minneapolis -1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -5°
Denver -3°
Austin -20°
Atlanta -8°

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