November 17, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Nymex December gas futures rose 16.9¢ Thursday to $6.369/MMBtu despite an oversized storage build that virtually closed the deficit to the five-year average. The contract is now up 49¢ in a four-session advance that shows bulls are more fully in control than storage fundamentals might suggest. But weather is the final arbiter in gas markets and it is undeniably cold and getting colder. The 12-month strip rose 6.3¢ to $5.411; the 2023 calendar strip was up 5¢ to $5.347 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude fell $3.95 to $81.64/bbl.
* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 64 Bcf storage build for the week ended Nov. 11, increasing net working gas inventories to 3,644 Bcf. The injection compares with a five-year average draw of 5 Bcf and a year-ago build of 23 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average fell to 7 Bcf, or 0.2%. The surplus to last year reached 4 Bcf, or 0.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 77 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average withdrawal of 48 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

California's PG&E South saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.93 to $7.76. The SoCal Citygate advanced 35¢ to average $8.66. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 45¢ at $6.20. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 33¢ to average $7.30, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 62¢ to average $8.21. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 8¢ to average $4.97. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 41¢ to $8.25 and Northwest Sumas gained 69¢ to average $8.69. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 41¢ to $4.69 (Daily cash prices).


* * *

Freeport LNG released a statement that provided a comprehensive analysis of the accident that shut the facility on Jun. 8. Employee fatigue from understaffing was a cited as a chief cause, according to a third-party investigative report. “Fatigue can increase errors, delay responses, and cloud decision-making,” the report said. It added that operators often worked overtime shifts on their days off and noted problems with the plant’s warning systems.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
PG&E SouthKingsgateFlorida Zone 1Tennessee Zone 4 200-legTenn 800 So LA Z1Waha HubTetco M3Transco Z6 - NYTransco Zone 5Westcoast Station 2-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%PG&E SouthKingsgateFlorida Zone 1Tennessee Zone 4 200-legTenn 800 So LA Z1Waha HubTetco M3Transco Z6 - NYTransco Zone 5Westcoast Station 2
Note: Nov 17' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (76), down (8).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 17, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 18, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 17, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.44.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.8Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 16 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Nov 17, '22
77%96%80%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 17 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 16 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
315029282817273524462283224223152143Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17(MMcf/d)050010001500200025003000Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16Nov 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
10 Nov 2211 Nov 2212 Nov 2213 Nov 2214 Nov 2215 Nov 2216 Nov 22400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000010 Nov 2211 Nov 2212 Nov 2213 Nov 2214 Nov 2215 Nov 2216 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200 7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
15520728230230127831534011November12November13November14November15November16November17November18November05010015020025030035011November12November13November14November15November16November17November18NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando -3°
Boston 3°
Washington -3°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville -12°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -12°
Detroit -5°
Denver -16°
Austin -13°
Atlanta -13°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando -3°
Boston 3°
Washington -3°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville -12°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -12°
Detroit -5°
Denver -16°
Austin -13°
Atlanta -13°

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