November 16, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

December gas futures gained 16.6¢ Wednesday to $6.20 per million Btu thanks to a late surge that lifted trading out of negative territory in the last hour of trading. The three-session, 32.1¢ gain comes as bearish fundamentals are losing luster. Most notably, storage inventories could see another strong gain Thursday only to be followed by two weeks of oversized pulls thanks to the current cold wave. The 12-month strip rose 7.8¢ to $5.349; the 2023 calendar strip was up 6.5¢ to $5.297 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude fell $1.33 to $85.59/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an abnormally high 63 billion cubic foot injection into storage for the week ended Nov. 11 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 3,643 Bcf, about 0.2% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average draw of 5 Bcf and the year-ago build of 23 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 70, below the 103 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Nov. 18 are for a 77 Bcf withdrawal, with a range from 60 Bcf to 110 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 48 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 14 Bcf.

* * *

As cold envelops the US, the Southeast's Transco zone 5 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.79 to $9.57. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 15¢ at $5.75. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $7.63, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $1.11 to average $7.59. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 48¢ to average $5.05. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 49¢ to $7.84, SoCal Citygate declined 70¢ to average $8.30 and Northwest Sumas lost 36¢ to average $8.00. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 19¢ to $4.28 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

US pipeline giant Williams and LNG developer Sempra Infrastructure are teaming up to deliver additional Haynesville Shale gas to planned LNG export terminals along the US Gulf Coast. Under a non-binding heads of agreement, the companies plan to form a joint venture to own, expand and operate the Cameron Interstate Pipeline that is expected to ship gas to the proposed Cameron LNG Phase 2 in Hackberry, Louisiana, in addition to other pipelines delivering gas to Sempra’s proposed Port Arthur LNG export terminal in Texas.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tetco M3PG&E CitygateWaha HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderPG&E South-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tetco M3PG&E CitygateWaha HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderPG&E South
Note: Nov 16' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (10), down (73).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 16, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 17, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 16, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.8Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 15 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 16 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 15 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
337031502928281727352446228322422315Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14Nov 15Nov 16NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
9 Nov 2210 Nov 2211 Nov 2212 Nov 2213 Nov 2214 Nov 2215 Nov 224000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000260002800030000 9 Nov 2210 Nov 2211 Nov 2212 Nov 2213 Nov 2214 Nov 2215 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600 7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
14715520728230230127230810November11November12November13November14November15November16November17November05010015020025030010November11November12November13November14November15November16November17NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 10°
Boston 7°
Washington -2°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 2°
Denver -17°
Austin -11°
Atlanta -9°
Southeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 10°
Boston 7°
Washington -2°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 2°
Denver -17°
Austin -11°
Atlanta -9°

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