November 9, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

December gas futures fell 27.3¢, or more than 4%, on Wednesday to end the session at $5.865 per million Btu. The lead contract has tumbled $1.079 over two sessions despite an expected jump in heating loads as arctic air spreads across the US this week. However, upside price risk is being trimmed by rising gas storage inventories and a significant narrowing of the seasonal deficit. The 12-month strip fell 14.1¢ to $5.146; the 2023 calendar strip was down 12.4¢ to $5.112 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude fell $3.08 to $85.83/bbl. The contract is down $6.70 so far this week as concerns rise over global demand.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an abnormally high 84 billion cubic foot injection into storage for the week ended Nov. 4 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 3,585 Bcf, about 1.9% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 20 Bcf and the year-ago build of 15 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 54, below the 88 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Nov. 11 are for a 64 Bcf injection, with a range from 51 Bcf to 78 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 5 Bcf and year-ago build of 23 Bcf.

* * *

In the Southwest, Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.53 to $4.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 51¢ at $3.43. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 91¢ to average $2.25, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $1.14 to average $2.31. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 56¢ to average $2.14. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 18¢ to $7.73, SoCal Citygate advanced 20¢ to average $8.41 and Northwest Sumas gained 13¢ to average $8.04. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 5¢ to $3.70 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Canadian midstream giant TC Energy is selling some C$5 billion (US $3.7 billion) in assets, the company said Wednesday during its third quarter earnings call. The divestiture program that will extend through 2023 will help accelerate deleveraging targets and open up more funds for new projects, CEO Francois Poirier explained. Executives did not identify what assets are on the table, but the company has been pivoting away from liquids to focus on natural gas assets and projects associated with the energy transition, such as carbon sequestration and storage.
Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanWhite River HubWestcoast Station 2Tennessee Zone 4 313 poolTetco M2Eastern Gas SouthTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTransco Leidy Line-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanWhite River HubWestcoast Station 2Tennessee Zone 4 313 poolTetco M2Eastern Gas SouthTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTransco Leidy Line
Note: Nov 9' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (32), down (48).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 9, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 10, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 9, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.64.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.87Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 8 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 9 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 8 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
367136343811346735923556349333703150Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8Nov 9(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8Nov 9NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22 4 Nov 22 5 Nov 22 6 Nov 22 7 Nov 22 8 Nov 2250001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22 4 Nov 22 5 Nov 22 6 Nov 22 7 Nov 22 8 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170031 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220030 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
1351241111221371601711553November4November5November6November7November8November9November10November0204060801001201401601802002203November4November5November6November7November8November9November10NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 0°
Boston 1°
Washington 0°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 23°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 8°
Denver 13°
Austin 16°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 0°
Boston 1°
Washington 0°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 23°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 8°
Denver 13°
Austin 16°
Atlanta 0°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com