November 7, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

December gas futures soared 54.4¢ Monday to $6.924 per million Btu as a winter blast is expected to spread Arctic air from the West to East Coasts and as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Prices at the open ran as high as $7.221 after weather outlooks turned much colder over the weekend. Unlike earlier shots of cold this fall, this one is expected to have staying power. The 12-month strip shot up 21.6¢ to $5.747; the 2023 calendar strip rose $17.8¢ to $5.657 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude fell 74¢ to $91.84/bbl.

* * *

Appalachia's Millennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.75 to $3.16. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 83¢ at $4.83. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up $2.53 to average $3.36, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $3.11 to average $3.86. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 9¢ to average $1.53. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $1.98 to $8.31, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.06 to average $9.24 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.78 to average $9.41. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 1.37 to $3.86 (Daily cash prices).

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By the end of the decade, 23% of the 200,568 megawatts of coal-fired capacity now operating in the US, or more than 46,130 MW, will be retired, according to the Energy Information Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. This year alone some 11,778 MW of coal fired capacity will be shuttered, more than the average of 9,450 MW annually in 2012-21. The pace of retirements is expected to slow after his year peaking at 9,842 MW in 2028. Economics is driving most of the retirements as older coal-fired capacity is not competitive with natural gas or renewables. “The planned coal-fired retirements span 24 states, including several that do not currently have renewable portfolio standards, or other clean energy policies that require electricity suppliers to supply a set share of their electricity from specified renewable or carbon-free resources,” the outlook says. Some 42% of the plants set for retirement are in Michigan, Texas, Indiana, and Tennessee.

* * *

Table notice: The November bidweek table was left out of the Nov. 1 edition of Gas Market Reconnaissance. GMR's Nov. 1 edition has been reposted.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsAlgonquinEastern Gas South KingsgateTetco-South TexasStanfieldTranswes E of Thoreau0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsAlgonquinEastern Gas South KingsgateTetco-South TexasStanfieldTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Nov 7' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (77), down (4).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 7, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 8, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 7, '22
Dec '22Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23($/MMBtu)4.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.877.27.4Dec '22Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 4 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 7 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 4 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
368039133671363438113467359235563493Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
29 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22 4 Nov 225000100001500020000250003000035000400004500029 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22 4 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170029 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)600800100012001400160018002000220028 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
71771351241111221271631 November2 November3 November4 November5 November6 November7 November8 November0204060801001201401601802001 November2 November3 November4 November5 November6 November7 November8 NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 1°
Boston 13°
Washington 15°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 15°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 5°
Denver 3°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 9°
Southeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 1°
Boston 13°
Washington 15°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 15°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 5°
Denver 3°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 9°

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