November 4, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

December NYMEX futures contract closed up 42.4¢ at $6.40 per million Btu Friday as traders discounted rapidly rising gas storage inventories in favor of a pending shot of Arctic air into the eastern US. The contract's rally capped off a volatile week of trading in which the contract surged and plunged in successive sessions due to a lack of clear fundamental signals. But bulls won this week's tug of war with the contract climbing 71.6¢ for the week. The 12-month strip rose X¢ to $X; the 2023 calendar strip was up X¢ to $X (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude soared $4.44 to $92.62/bbl on renewed fears of a tightening market and a weaker dollar.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.18 to 49¢/MMBtu as maintenance on the Westcoast Transmission system continues. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell $1.07 to $2.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 65¢ at $4.00. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged 83¢/MMBtu, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $1.61 to average 75¢/MMBtu. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 36¢ to average $1.44. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 20¢ to $6.33, SoCal Citygate declined 9¢ to average $7.17 and Northwest Sumas gained 8¢ to average $7.63. (Daily cash prices).


* * *

EOG has established a 395,000 net acre position in the Ohio Utica Combo gas play and acquired 135,000 mineral acres in the southern portion of the play at a combined cost of $500 million. The company has completed four wells and now operates 18 additional legacy wells across a 140-mile trend. The initial drilling results, EOG officials said, have confirmed expectations that the Utica Combo will be its “next large-scale premium resource play” due to high rates of return and realized cost efficiencies from developing the play with three-mile laterals. The company expects to drill 20 wells on the acreage in 2023.

* * *

The US rig count declined two to 770 last week, up 220 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell one to 155, up 55 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed three to 613, up 163 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 75 rigs to 346, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 30 to 70. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 23 at 69 (Rig counts).

* * *

Price notice: Due to revisions by data providers, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing for trade day Oct. 31, 2022 as follows:

At Florida Zone 3, the revised pricing is: Low: $5.32; High: $5.40; Average: $5.34; Volume: 141,700 and Deals: 25.

At CenterPoint East, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.65; High: $3.90; Average: $3.76; Volume: 72,200 and Deals: 12.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
KingsgatePG&E SouthKern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal BorderMalinTennessee Zone 4 313 poolCIGAlgonquinCarthage HubWestcoast Station 2-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%KingsgatePG&E SouthKern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal BorderMalinTennessee Zone 4 313 poolCIGAlgonquinCarthage HubWestcoast Station 2
Note: Nov 4' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (8), down (69).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 4, 2022 / Flow Dates: Nov. 5-7, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 4, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.855.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.877.27.4Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 3 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Nov 4 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 4 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 3 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
379935233617368039133671363438113467Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
28 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22500010000150002000025000300003500028 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 22 3 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170026 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)7008009001000110012001300140015001600170025 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
14213710471771351279629October30October31October1November2November3November4November5November02040608010012014016018029October30October31October1November2November3November4November5NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 0°
Boston 15°
Washington 10°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -13°
Detroit 14°
Denver -13°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 8°
Southeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 0°
Boston 15°
Washington 10°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -13°
Detroit 14°
Denver -13°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 8°

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