November 3, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

December gas futures shed 29.3¢ Thursday to $5.975 per million Btu in the wake of a bearish triple-digit storage build that boosted inventories to 3.5 trillion cubic feet. But any impact by the monster refill could be short-lived. The contract is still up 29.1¢ for the week, mainly due to the potential for cold weather to arrive by mid-November and stick around though December. If that bullish outlook pans out, the contract could easily rally into a $6.455-$7/MMBtu range, Gelber & Associates analysts said. The 12-month strip fell 10¢ to $5.25; the 2023 calendar strip was down 7.7¢ to $5.217 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude fell $1.83 to $88.17/bbl.

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 107 Bcf storage build for the week ended Oct. 28, increasing net working gas inventories to 3,501 Bcf. The injection compares with a five-year average of 45 Bcf and a year-ago build of 66 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average fell to 135 Bcf, or 3.7%. The deficit to last year dropped to 101 Bcf, or 2.8%. Next week's data is expected to show an 81 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 20 Bcf (Storage).

* * *
Northeast prices tumbled as low demand and growing supply takes its toll with Appalachia's Millennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts seeing the most significant price move of the day, falling $2.04 to 96¢/MMBtu. Boston-area Algonquin declined $1.32 to average $2.36. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 11¢ at $4.65. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 21¢ to average $1.80. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 3¢ to $6.53, SoCal Citygate declined 14¢ to average $7.26 and Northwest Sumas lost 29¢ to average $7.55. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 29¢ to $3.57 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Costs for solar photovoltaic systems continues to fall in the US, but building natural gas generation capacity remains a much cheaper option, the latest Energy Information Administration data show. The agency crunched construction costs for all utility-scale solar power projects and found the capacity-weighted average fell 8% in 2019-20 to $1,655 per kilowatt. By contrast, the cost of building gas-fired generation rose 4% during the same period, although it remained a much cheaper alternative at $1,116/kW. Combined-cycle plants dominated new gas capacity installed in 2020, for which the average cost of construction increased by 22% to $1,155 per kW. Simple combustion turbines used in fast-start peaking plants averaged $636/kW.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2Tres Palacios HubOneokSouthern StarNGPL-MCTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTransco Leidy LineTransco Z6 - Non-NYEastern Gas SouthMillennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Westcoast Station 2Tres Palacios HubOneokSouthern StarNGPL-MCTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTransco Leidy LineTransco Z6 - Non-NYEastern Gas SouthMillennium Pipeline Co., East Receipts
Note: Nov 3' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (29), down (48).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 3, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 4, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 3, '22
Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 2 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Nov 3, '22
74%95%77%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 3 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 2 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
397537993523361736803913367136343811Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
27 Oct 2228 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 226000800010000120001400016000180002000027 Oct 2228 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22 2 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170025 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
24 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190024 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov 2 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
148142137104717712612228October29October30October31October1November2November3November4November02040608010012014016018028October29October30October31October1November2November3November4NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 5°
Boston 5°
Washington 6°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis 22°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -15°
Detroit 12°
Denver -1°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 10°
Southeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 5°
Boston 5°
Washington 6°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis 22°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -15°
Detroit 12°
Denver -1°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 10°

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