November 2, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

December gas futures boomeranged back above $6 per million Btu Wednesday, gaining 55.4¢ to $6.268/MMBtu. This is the third consecutive session to see prices gyrate 9% or more as restored demand at Cove Point LNG and conflicting weather forecasts goose market direction. Next up is the collision Thursday of an undoubtedly bearish storage report with forecasts for a cold end to November that are just coming into focus. The 12-month strip rose 25.8¢ to $5.351; the 2023 calendar strip rose 21.9¢ to $5.294 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude rose $1.63 to $90/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an above-normal 97 billion cubic foot build into storage for the week ended Oct. 28 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 3,491 Bcf, about 4% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 45 Bcf and the year-ago build of 66 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 58, below the 72 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Nov. 4 are for an 81 Bcf injection, with a range from 65 Bcf to 105 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 20 Bcf and year-ago build of 15 Bcf.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 45¢ to $1.19. Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 3¢ to $3.86. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 6¢ at $4.54. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 11¢ to average $3.23, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 15¢ to average $3.68. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 41¢ to average $2.01. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 16¢ to $6.57, SoCal Citygate declined 30¢ to average $7.39 and Northwest Sumas gained 56¢ to average $7.84 (Daily cash prices).

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2ANR SWTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTennessee Zone 4 200-legPanhandleTranswes E of ThoreauTenn 800 So LA Z1Tres Palacios HubEl Paso PermianWaha Hub-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Westcoast Station 2ANR SWTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsTennessee Zone 4 200-legPanhandleTranswes E of ThoreauTenn 800 So LA Z1Tres Palacios HubEl Paso PermianWaha Hub
Note: Nov 2' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (56), down (26).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Nov. 2, 2022 / Flow Date: Nov. 3, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0102030405060Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Nov 2, '22
Dec '22Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Dec '22Jan '23Feb '23Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Nov 1 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Nov 2 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Nov 1 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
402139753799352336173680391336713634Oct 25Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 25Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
26 Oct 2227 Oct 2228 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 226000800010000120001400016000180002000026 Oct 2227 Oct 2228 Oct 2229 Oct 2230 Oct 2231 Oct 22 1 Nov 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
24 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170024 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 NovCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
23 Oct24 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 Nov(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190023 Oct24 Oct25 Oct26 Oct27 Oct28 Oct29 Oct30 Oct31 Oct 1 NovPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
134148142137104718212627 October28 October29 October30 October31 October1 November2 November3 November02040608010012014016018027 October28 October29 October30 October31 October1 November2 November3 NovemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 5°
Boston 8°
Washington 7°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 8°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 26°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 11°
Denver 15°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 9°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 5°
Boston 8°
Washington 7°
Seattle -5°
Philadelphia 8°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 26°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 11°
Denver 15°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 9°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com