October 26, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

November gas futures dipped as low as the $5.30s in early trading but ended the session down 0.7¢ at $5.606 per million Btu. The contract rolls off the board Thursday. The 12-month strip was down 0.6¢ to $5.302; the 2023 strip edged down 0.1¢ to $5.231 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude jumped $2.29 to $87.91/bbl, bolstered by record US crude exports and a weaker dollar.

* * *

Negative pricing persisted in the Permian Basin as maintenance on two Kinder Morgan takeaway pipelines continues. The Permian's Waha Hub rose 4¢ to average minus 69¢/MMBtu. However, British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.88 to $2.56 as regional maintenance-related constraints improved. Alberta benchmark Aeco rose $1.85 to $2.85. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 5¢ at $5.24. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 17¢ to average $4.42, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 8¢ to average $4.55. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 2¢ to $5.56, SoCal Citygate declined 44¢ to average $5.77 and Northwest Sumas lost 2¢ to average $6.05 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a below-normal 59 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Oct. 21 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 3,401 Bcf, about 5.3% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 66 Bcf and the year-ago build of 88 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 76, above the 58 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Oct. 28 are for a 96 Bcf injection, with a range from 55 Bcf to 182 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 45 Bcf and year-ago build of 66 Bcf.

* * *

Signs abound that LNG Canada is close to sanctioning Phase 2 of the Shell-led LNG gas export project in Kitimat, British Columbia. The first phase with a 1.8 Bcf/d capacity is nearly 70% compete, with operations set to start in mid-2025. RBN analyst Martin King said recent industry buzz about the probable sanctioning of the second phase, which would also have a 1.8 Bcf/d capacity, was reinforced by BC Energy Minister Bruce Ralston stating that "the province was in active discussions with LNG Canada concerning additional development at the site and, presumably, for the electrification of any new trains for Phase 2," King said. "One of the considerations for Phase 2 development — should it proceed — appears to be the requirement from the BC provincial government that the liquefaction trains of Phase 2 be electricity powered, rather than gas powered as they are currently for Phase 1."
Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2AECOTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadKern River DeliveredTres Palacios HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateTranswes E of Thoreau-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Westcoast Station 2AECOTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadKern River DeliveredTres Palacios HubEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Oct 26' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (58), down (19).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 26, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 27, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 26, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 25 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 26 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 25 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
408739894020408042564191404240213975Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25Oct 26(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25Oct 26NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
19 Oct 2220 Oct 2221 Oct 2222 Oct 2223 Oct 2224 Oct 2225 Oct 22800010000120001400016000180002000019 Oct 2220 Oct 2221 Oct 2222 Oct 2223 Oct 2224 Oct 2225 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)900100011001200130014001500160017001800190017 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200016 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
17912391981028410513320October21October22October23October24October25October26October27October02040608010012014016018020October21October22October23October24October25October26October27OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -1°
Boston 12°
Washington 8°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville -4°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 9°
Denver 4°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -1°
Boston 12°
Washington 8°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville -4°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 9°
Denver 4°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -1°

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