October 25, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

November natural gas futures continued to surge Tuesday, adding 41.4¢ to settle at $5.613/MMBtu and bringing the two-session gain to 65.4¢. The technical rebound off Friday’s dip below $5/MMBtu stems not only from oversold conditions in the wake of a six-session $1.782 collapse, but upside risk from traders throwing in the towel on winter before it arrives. The 12-month strip rose 25.3¢ to $5.308; the 2023 calendar strip was up 20.2¢ to $5.232 (Futures contracts).

WTI December crude rose 74¢ to $85.32/bbl.

* * *

Kinder Morgan maintenance on both El Paso Natural Gas and the Gulf Coast Express Pipelines has sent Permian Basin prices into negative territory for the first time in two years. El Paso Permian saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.47 to minus $1.00/MMBtu. The Permian's Waha Hub fell $1.20 to average minus 73¢/MMBtu. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 38¢ at $5.19. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 24¢ to average $4.25, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 13¢ to average $4.63. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 72¢ to $5.54, SoCal Citygate advanced 99¢ to average $6.21 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.06 to average $6.06. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 68¢ to $1.00 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Southgate Expansion into North Carolina continued to fade this week when developers of the 75-mile project withdrew legal proceedings to condemn land needed for the right of way. MVP had already signaled in March that it is freezing efforts to build the extension from Chatham, Virginia, to Alamance, North Carolina, by asking a federal court to dismiss its appeal of a decision by the Virginia State Air Pollution Control Board denying the project a key permit. Then as now, lead pipeline developer Equitrans Midstream said it is not abandoning Southgate, but concentrating its efforts on starting MVP operations by the end of next year.
Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AECOWestcoast Station 2El Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderOneok  Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso Permian-350%-300%-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%AECOWestcoast Station 2El Paso - South MainlineSoCal BorderOneok  Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso Permian
Note: Oct 25' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (74), down (3).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 25, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 26, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 25, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.57Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 24 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 25 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 24 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
421040873989402040804256419140424021Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
18 Oct 2219 Oct 2220 Oct 2221 Oct 2222 Oct 2223 Oct 2224 Oct 2280009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000190002000018 Oct 2219 Oct 2220 Oct 2221 Oct 2222 Oct 2223 Oct 2224 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)900100011001200130014001500160017001800190016 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200015 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
21017912391981028110219October20October21October22October23October24October25October26October02040608010012014016018020022019October20October21October22October23October24October25October26OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 9°
Washington 7°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 19°
Denver 1°
Austin 1°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 9°
Washington 7°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 19°
Denver 1°
Austin 1°
Atlanta 0°

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