November 1, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

US Demand Perks Up, Net Exports Touch New Summit

  • Monthly US demand data from the Energy Information Administration continues to prove higher than preliminary weekly readings.
  • Net exports of crude and petroleum products in August signify a new record for the US.
  • European demand for US crude is strong, but Latin America dominates products.

US oil demand remains stronger than weekly data signal. In August, US oil consumption was 20.6 million barrels per day, which is 560,000 b/d higher than weekly data had signaled, according to the latest numbers in the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Petroleum Supply Monthly. Since April, US demand has been an average 574,000 b/d better than the influential weekly numbers.

EIA data show that the early summer gasoline price shock had somewhat worn off by August when national prices were $1 per gallon lower than in June, although they were still 75¢/gallon higher than in August 2021. Gasoline demand in August totaled 9.08 million b/d, which was 300,000 b/d higher than weekly data had indicated.

In the monthly data, which are based on surveys rather than modeling used for the weekly numbers, diesel demand came in 116,000 b/d higher than expected at 3.86 million b/d. The US reported annualized GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter after negative growth the first half of the year. Jet fuel demand was estimated at 1.65 million b/d.

US oil consumption is expected to come in at 20.4 million b/d in 2022, some 500,000 b/d higher than 2021 but still 50,000 b/d below pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Unrelenting Export Bonanza

While domestic consumption shows strength, the US is also feeling a strong pull from overseas. The country hit record levels of petroleum net exports in August, shipping almost 1.5 million b/d more oil abroad than it took in. Shipments on refined products were some 6.2 million b/d, while crude exports were just under 3.7 million b/d, the third straight month above the 3.5 million b/d.

Several factors have helped boost exports. The disruption to traditional trade flows in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with the resulting embargoes and sanctions, have played an enormous role. For example, crude exports to Europe, where the EU is instituting a ban on seaborne Russian crude and products, were 1.5 million b/d in August, the fourth consecutive month at or above that level.

Product shipments to the region have trailed, however, averaging some 532,000 b/d in August.

In contrast, product exports to Latin America posted a record of just under 3.2 million b/d.

The US imported 6.3 million b/d of crude oil in August, with Canada by far the largest foreign supplier at almost 3.9 million b/d. Mexico was the second-largest source of crude at 641,000 b/d. Domestic production averaged just under 12 million b/d.

The US is relying increasingly on North American crude, a process that began with the shale revolution at home and oil sands exploitation in Canada toward the start of the last decade. Key losers of market share include North Sea producers and Opec. August imports from the latter were just 941,000 b/d, their lowest since May and well below the roughly 4.6 million b/d levels of 2010.

Product imports, meanwhile, were just over 2 million b/d, their lowest since January. Gasoline components accounted for 631,000 b/d of the total, with unfinished oils a distant second at 451,000 b/d.

US Crude Exports, August 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)Aug'22Aug'2120212020
All Destinations3,6532,9922,9633,206
India672560420281
Netherlands378258286298
Korea344325349269
Canada336385311420
United Kingdom243220233247
China206705256481
Singapore177014391
Italy170120114140
Taiwan15947145158
Switzerland1470144
Spain114238663
France967110281
Germany906978101
Thailand711013776
Uruguay5201717
Dominican Republic35162510
Australia2401329
Norway2424386
Peru24231920
Denmark22233031
Ireland22393943
Brazil18285334
Colombia18181915
Nicaragua91299
Belgium1015
Lithuania04826
Other200-12220
US Petroleum Product Exports, August 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsNGLsNGLsMogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21Aug'22Aug'21
All Destinations6,1745,8742,4132,4581,0279552111391,4241,16011374576461411627
Mexico1,3221,107214176557442746337428941045625464
Canada59651825426659613223161424233711173120
Japan5715314774250000000078541653
China455435377404000010000683100
Brazil363493378062124001811600049793450
Indonesia7613175131000000000000
India136100768600000000585210
Korea14223611918400000018000552
Chile2222385044311418151081570000158
Peru172120118272464123720000512
Netherlands1391276832051005500826376
Dominican Republic12869582624107423201012643
Panama164122311738197806444110011
Guatemala1139702745371249260017511
Ecuador94102344119190032270001391
Colombia10917121617200115500003543
Honduras636313191718122123009022
Costa Rica5763871919652325000612
Spain783746004000200313100
Egypt42473347000000009000
France14171300000000011611
Morocco50474138000000009900
Singapore6688505400405100700716
El Salvador393755191915137000010
United Kingdom735535161010027200021017
Bahama Islands75421221411132261090000
Other814783311339404519102401611261511274295
US Crude Oil Imports, August 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaColombiaIraqEcuadorGuyanaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21
Phillips 665024701027460--16--------36----852794
Marathon489257613922--16--115--26------799336
BP523449------------------------576506
Chevron16381299216534966557844447532482561
Exxon Mobil424436------------------------424436
PBF Energy929381568589----9--6013328414328
Flint Hills326196------------------------326196
Valero2--136145--------365346113724300348
Saudi Aramco6942----180129----------------249202
Cenovus Energy204199------------------------204199
Houston Refining626118585--4864------------153183
Hollyfrontier Refining & Marketing LLC150112------------------------150112
Monroe Energy--22------------------------128105
Suncor114132------------------------114132
MEG Energy10861------------------------10861
Top 153,0812,568527463368271129130214131176104144645,2784,498
Total Companies3,8533,673641608384357215173214131176159144646,3306,236
Total Imports3,8533,673641608384357215173214131176159144646,3306,236
US Petroleum Product Imports, August 2022
CanadaSouth KoreaMexicoSaudi ArabiaIraqBrazilIndiaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21
Motor Gasoline1291725122751641----15317083726894
Other Oils13133619133724792--23----3507582
Middle Distillates1531422520------25----------7201285
Residual Fuel Oil3019----636811------270--0191201
LPG/Chemicals152130------------------------163132
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel11173995------1--------81285224
Asphalt4759------------------------6962
Lubricants1091214----------------0--5578
Fuel Ethanol--------------------149----149
Petroleum Coke11----------------04----128
Total Companies5455611631521611079911492--7944791062,0242,475
Total Imports5455631631521611079911492--7944791062,0242,478
US Petroleum Product Imports, August 2022
CanadaSouth KoreaMexicoSaudi ArabiaIraqBrazilIndiaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21Aug '22Aug '21
Valero3447--265110612943--------12300418
Irving Oil190216------------------------190216
Exxon Mobil1414----2519--2832--2730----180326
BP914363------4----------10128117
Phillips 6645131936------23--181212361
Shell1016------5--------------18117186
Atlantic Trading----27--7----10--------17--8353
Chevron----416302911--------------8096
Vitol209--------------------8--5763
Freepoint Commodities12--------------------------4312
George E. Warren Corp------------8------11------4036
PBF Energy--------1021----18----------3671
Petrogas Energy3634------------------------3634
Trafigura--2--10------26------131835153
Plains3420------------------------3420
Top 15363377675814287869692--61--46701,4831,863
Total Companies5455611631521611079911492--7944791062,0242,475
Total Imports5455631631521611079911492--7944791062,0242,478

Frans Koster, New York and John van Schaik, New York