October 21, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

November natural gas futures dropped 39.9¢ to $4.959 per million Btu on Friday, capping a six-session, $1.782 decline. The timing of the price flush is notable in that it occurred during an unseasonable blast of record cold that drove US natural gas consumption up 7.3 Bcf/d versus the prior week. The 12-month strip fell 23.6¢ to $4.885; the 2023 calendar strip was off 19.5¢ to $4.888 (Futures prices).

WTI December crude rose 54¢ to $85.05.bbl on its first session as prompt month.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 30¢ to 60¢/MMBtu. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 9¢ to $1.19. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 68¢ at $4.42. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $3.35, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 78¢ to average $3.79. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $1.12 to average $2.84. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 85¢ to $3.81, SoCal Citygate declined $1.9 to average $4.14 and Northwest Sumas lost 88¢ to average $3.92 (Daily cash prices).

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The US rig count climbed two to 771 last week, up 229 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs held at 157, up 58 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed two to 612, up 169 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 78 rigs to 346, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 31 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 24 at 70 (Rig counts).

* * *

Price notice: Due to revisions by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing at SoCal Border for trade day Oct. 19, 2022:

The revised pricing is: Low: $5.65; High: $6.90; Average: $6.04; Volume: 145,020 and Deals: 35.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2    El Paso PermianTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanSoCal CitygateEl Paso - South Mainline-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Westcoast Station 2    El Paso PermianTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanSoCal CitygateEl Paso - South Mainline
Note: Oct 21' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (78).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 21, 2022 / Flow Dates: Oct. 22-24, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 21, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 20 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Oct 21 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 21 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 20 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
376437693848411042104087398940204080Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
14 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 2219 Oct 2220 Oct 2280009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000190002000014 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 2219 Oct 2220 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600170012 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)90010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000210011 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
1141161372002101791299715October16October17October18October19October20October21October22October02040608010012014016018020022015October16October17October18October19October20October21October22OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -4°
Orlando -10°
Boston -3°
Washington -8°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -6°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 8°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit -3°
Denver 13°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -10°
Southeast US
New York -4°
Orlando -10°
Boston -3°
Washington -8°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -6°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 8°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit -3°
Denver 13°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -10°

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