October 20, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The latest in a five-week string of triple-digit US storage inventory builds only reinforced the steep slide for US natural gas futures, which have fallen by $1.383 over five consecutive sessions. The November contract lost an additional 10.4¢ on Thursday to close at $5.358 per million Btu. The 12-month strip fell 5.9¢ to $5.18; the 2023 strip was down 4.8¢ to $5.083 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude gained 43¢ Thursday to roll off the board at $85.98/bbl. December crude takes over the lead position at $84.51/bbl.

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 111 Bcf storage build for the week ended Oct. 14, increasing net working gas inventories to 3,342 Bcf. The injection compares with a five-year average of 73 Bcf and a year-ago build of 91 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average fell to 183 Bcf, or 5.2%. The deficit to last year declined to 106 Bcf, or 3.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 62 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 66 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.33 to 30¢/MMBtu as pipeline maintenance continues to roil Western Canadian markets. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 90¢ to $1.28. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 38¢ at $5.10. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin declined 85¢ to average $4.57. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 89¢ to average $3.96. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 39¢ to $4.66, SoCal Citygate declined $1.04 to average $6.05 and Northwest Sumas lost 16¢ to average $4.80 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Sempra's Port Arthur LNG and Bechtel Energy have restated their fixed-price engineering, procurement and construction contract for Phase 1 of the project under development in Jefferson County, Texas. The amended contract includes an updated price of about $10.5 billion for the initial two trains, LNG storage tanks and supporting infrastructure. Port Arthur has a proposed nameplate capacity of 13.5 million tons per year of LNG (1.85 Bcf/d).

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
     Waha HubTranswes E of ThoreauKingsgateAECOWestcoast Station 2-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%     Waha HubTranswes E of ThoreauKingsgateAECOWestcoast Station 2
Note: Oct 20' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (0), down (83).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 20, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 21, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 20, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.5Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 19 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Oct 20, '22
71%92%74%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 20 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 19 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
376037643769384841104210408739894020Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
13 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 2219 Oct 22800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600028000300003200013 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 2219 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600170011 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)90010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000210010 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
11311411613720021017412614October15October16October17October18October19October20October21October02040608010012014016018020022014October15October16October17October18October19October20October21OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -9°
Orlando -15°
Boston -6°
Washington -12°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -10°
Nashville -16°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles 11°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -10°
Denver 10°
Austin -6°
Atlanta -15°
Southeast US
New York -9°
Orlando -15°
Boston -6°
Washington -12°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -10°
Nashville -16°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles 11°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -10°
Denver 10°
Austin -6°
Atlanta -15°

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