October 19, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The four-session plunge by Henry Hub gas futures continued Wednesday with the contract sliding 28.3¢ to $5.462 per million Btu. The contract has lost $1.279 since the dive began last Friday. The fall is even more impressive coming as a shot of early cold envelops the eastern US. But a brief cold snap can't bull up longer term fundamentals, analysts at Gelber & Associates said. "Once the calendar presses into December, and if the temperatures at that time remain warmish, it’s not out of the question that Nymex gas futures could fall well below $5.00/MMBtu." The 12-month strip fell 22.1¢ to $5.18; the 2023 calendar strip was off 19.7¢ to $5.131 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude rose $2.73 to $85.55/bbl. The contract rolls off the board Thursday.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 105 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Oct. 14 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 3,336 Bcf, about 5.4% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 73 Bcf and the year-ago build of 91 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought total degree days to 66, below the 69 TDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Oct. 21 are for a 62 Bcf injection, with a range from 40 Bcf to 102 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 66 Bcf and year-ago build of 88 Bcf.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 67¢ to $1.62. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 60¢ to $2.18. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 42¢ at $5.49. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 61¢ to average $5.15, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 66¢ to average $5.42. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 18¢ to average $4.85. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 53¢ to $5.05, SoCal Citygate declined 39¢ to average $7.08 and Northwest Sumas lost 39¢ to average $4.96 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

A group of manufacturers that has long opposed unfettered export of US natural gas as LNG is raising concerns about the degree to which Chinese companies have contracted with US developers. “As an adversary, by contracting for large amounts of US LNG, China can damage both national and economic security,” Paul Cicio, the head of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America, wrote in a letter to Congress. Concerns are also being raised by both conservative and progressive wings of the Democratic party, with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) arguing that US consumers were not insulated from high natural gas prices in a way that had been true prior to the US LNG industry taking off. Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with the Democrats, has pledged to introduce legislation that would revise how the US Department of Energy considers exports to countries with which the US does not have a free trade agreement.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Stanfield    Tetco-South TexasEl Paso - South MainlineKingsgateAECOWestcoast Station 2-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%Stanfield    Tetco-South TexasEl Paso - South MainlineKingsgateAECOWestcoast Station 2
Note: Oct 19' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (82).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 19, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 20, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 19, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.58Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 18 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 19 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 18 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
378237603764376938484110421040873989Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
12 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 22800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600028000300003200012 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 2218 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700180010 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
10611311411613720020617513October14October15October16October17October18October19October20October02040608010012014016018020022013October14October15October16October17October18October19October20OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -6°
Orlando -17°
Boston -2°
Washington -10°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia -8°
Nashville -15°
Minneapolis -16°
Los Angeles 14°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit -9°
Denver 9°
Austin -14°
Atlanta -14°
Southeast US
New York -6°
Orlando -17°
Boston -2°
Washington -10°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia -8°
Nashville -15°
Minneapolis -16°
Los Angeles 14°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit -9°
Denver 9°
Austin -14°
Atlanta -14°

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