October 18, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

November Henry Hub gas futures continued to fall, ending Tuesday's session down 25.4¢ at $5.745 per million Btu. The contract has lost 99.4¢ over the last three sessions as traders focus on increasingly bearish early winter outlooks that portend a much looser supply/demand balance than expected only a month ago. While a technical rebound back to $6/MMBtu is possible, if not probable due to oversold conditions, the contract might first test support in the $5.60s. The 12-month strip fell 18.7¢ to $5.401; the 2023 calendar strip was down 16.8¢ to $5.328 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude fell $2.64 to $82.82/bbl as global economic gloom intensifies.

* * *

Alberta benchmark Aeco saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.74 to $2.78. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 9¢ at $5.91. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 1¢ to average $5.76, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 28¢ to average $6.08. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 98¢ to average $5.03. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 15¢ to $5.58, SoCal Citygate advanced 46¢ to average $7.47 and Northwest Sumas gained 13¢ to average $5.35 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

TC Energy will invest $29.3 million in a renewable natural gas facility at the Jack Daniel Distillery in Lynchburg, Tenn. The facility, owned by Lynchburg Renewable Fuels, will generate biogas by breaking down the byproduct mash from the whiskey distilling process. Once cleaned of contaminants, the RNG will be fed directly into the local gas grid or used to create liquid fertilizer. TCE will transport and market 100% of the RNG. While the midstream giant has been transporting renewable fuels for 20 years, this marks the first time TCE has directly invested in an RNG project. TCE and 3 Rivers Energy Partners, the private equity firm behind the Lynchburg project, have committed to jointly developing future RNG projects. This is the latest RNG move by a Canadian energy company seeking to green-up operations, following announcements by Atco Energy, Enbridge and Suncor Energy.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AECOKingsgateWestcoast Station 2Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubTransco Zone 4Florida Zone 1Transco Station 45StanfieldTenn 500 So LA Z1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AECOKingsgateWestcoast Station 2Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubTransco Zone 4Florida Zone 1Transco Station 45StanfieldTenn 500 So LA Z1
Note: Oct 18' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (59), down (22).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 18, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 19, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 18, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.58Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 17 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 18 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 17 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
388037823760376437693848411042104087Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18(MMcf/d)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
11 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 22800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600028000300003200011 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 2215 Oct 2216 Oct 2217 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600170018001900 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
10710611311411613720020512 October13 October14 October15 October16 October17 October18 October19 October02040608010012014016018020022012 October13 October14 October15 October16 October17 October18 October19 OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -1°
Boston 6°
Washington -6°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis -19°
Los Angeles 7°
Las Vegas 8°
Detroit -10°
Denver 0°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -11°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -1°
Boston 6°
Washington -6°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis -19°
Los Angeles 7°
Las Vegas 8°
Detroit -10°
Denver 0°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -11°

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