October 17, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

US natural gas market bears grabbed the wheel Monday, driving down the Henry Hub November contract 45.4¢ to $5.999/MMBtu. The prompt month is now down $3.12 since Sep. 15, a decline capped by this latest two-session 74.2¢ slide. The 12-month strip fell 16.5¢ to $5.588; the 2023 calendar strip was down 10.6¢ to $5.496 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude edged down 15¢ to $85.46/bbl.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.63 to $1.11. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell $1.46 to $1.04. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 8¢ at $6.00. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 60¢ to average $5.75, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 47¢ to average $5.80. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 35¢ to average $4.04. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 26¢ to $5.43, SoCal Citygate advanced $1.14 to average $7.01 and Northwest Sumas gained 22¢ to average $5.22 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given Freeport LNG a five-year extension on competing its yet to be sanctioned fourth train. Freeport now has until August 2028 to begin operations. Assuming it will take 48 to 56 months to build the new fourth train, it will have to be sanctioned by summer of 2024. Freeport’s three existing liquefaction trains, which consume up to 2.1 billion cubic foot per day, have been shut since Jun. 8 after a pipe explosion. The company has said it expects the plant to return to at least partial service in November. Freeport said the fourth-train project was delayed by the replacement of its engineering, procurement and construction contractor and the COVID-19 pandemic.

* * *

The family of Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources, will take the oil and gas independent private in a deal valued at nearly $27 billion. The company agreed to the Hamm family’s proposal to buy the roughly 58 million shares, or 17% of the company stock it didn’t already own, for around $4.3 billion. The family will pay $74.28 per share, a 15% premium to the closing price of Continental’s common stock of $64.50 on Jun. 13, the day before the Hamm family's initial offer of around $70 per share.
* * *

BP will buy renewable natural gas producer Archaea Energy for about $4.1 billion, the companies said on Monday, as the British energy major seeks to expand its alternative fuels business. The deal will the largest ever RNG acquisition, topping Chevron's $3.15 billion buyout of biodiesel maker Renewable Energy Group Inc earlier this year. It will also be the largest acquisition BP has made since Chief Executive Bernard Looney took office in early 2020 with a pledge to slash BP's greenhouse gas emissions and oil and gas production while growing its renewables business. BP has offered $26 in cash for each Archaea share, or $3.3 billion, and will take on about $800 million of net debt. The offer represents a premium of 54% to Archaea's closing price on Friday.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2El Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderPine Prairie HubHenry HubCenterPoint EastKingsgateAECO-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%Westcoast Station 2El Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderPine Prairie HubHenry HubCenterPoint EastKingsgateAECO
Note: Oct 17' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (70), down (8).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 17, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 18, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC01020304050607080Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 17, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)55.566.577.58Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 14 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 17 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 14 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
369738803782376037643769384841104210Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17(MMcf/d)050010001500200025003000350040004500Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 228000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000032000 8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 2214 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)7008009001000110012001300140015001600170018001900 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
8810710611311411613319111October12October13October14October15October16October17October18October02040608010012014016018020011October12October13October14October15October16October17October18OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 3°
Washington 7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville -2°
Minneapolis -15°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -5°
Denver -5°
Austin 8°
Atlanta 6°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 3°
Washington 7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville -2°
Minneapolis -15°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -5°
Denver -5°
Austin 8°
Atlanta 6°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com