October 14, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

November gas futures fell 28.8¢ to $6.453 per million Btu, down 29.5¢ for the week. But judging from market action this week, it could as well have finished higher as the contract is bouncing between the looming risk of a cold winter and a near-term loosening of supply/demand fundamentals. The 12-month strip fell 13.5¢ to $5.753; the 2023 calendar strip was down 9.6¢ to $5.602 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude fell $3.50 to $85.61/bbl, down $7.03 for the week.

* * *
A key conduit for Permian supply to California, El Paso - South Mainline, saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $2.09 to $5.37. The Permian's Waha Hub fell 30¢ to average $3.69 and SoCal Citygate declined $2.12 to average $5.87. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 17¢ at $6.08. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 24¢ to average $5.15, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 17¢ to average $5.33. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 28¢ to $5.17 and Northwest Sumas lost 41¢ to average $4.99. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 49¢ to $2.50 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

DT Midstream is preparing for Gulf Coast LNG demand growth with a two-year project expanding capacity on two Haynesville-Gulf Coast pipeline systems. DTM will gradually add 0.5 billion cubic feet per day of capacity on its Blue Union dry gas gathering system in the Haynesville, with the capacity to be fully on line by the end of the year. The 343 mile system in northwest Louisiana feeds up to 2 Bcf/d of supply into DTM's LEAP lateral and other pipelines delivering gas to the Louisiana Gulf Coast. DTM has also sanctioned LEAP's Phase II expansion adding 1.7 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity. The LEAP Gathering Lateral Pipeline is a 155 mile high-pressure pipeline that supplies gas to pipelines that access petrochemical and refining facilities, power plants and LNG export facilities.

* * *

The US rig count climbed seven to 769 last week, up 226 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell one to 157, up 59 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed eight to 610, up 165 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 79 rigs to 346, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 31 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 24 at 70 (Rig counts).

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
CenterPoint East    SoCal BorderAECOWestcoast Station 2SoCal CitygateEl Paso - South Mainline-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%CenterPoint East    SoCal BorderAECOWestcoast Station 2SoCal CitygateEl Paso - South Mainline
Note: Oct 14' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (75).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 14, 2022 / Flow Dates: Oct. 15-17, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 14, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)55.566.577.58Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 13 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Oct 14 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 14 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 13 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
243126412631360136973880378237603764Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13(MMcf/d)05001000150020002500300035004000Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
7 Oct 22 8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 228000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000032000 7 Oct 22 8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 2213 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)7008009001000110012001300140015001600170018001900 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
140142118881071061121058 October9 October10October11October12October13October14October15October0204060801001201408 October9 October10October11October12October13October14October15OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -2°
Boston 6°
Washington -2°
Seattle 8°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville -5°
Minneapolis -8°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas 10°
Detroit -8°
Denver 16°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -8°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -2°
Boston 6°
Washington -2°
Seattle 8°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville -5°
Minneapolis -8°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas 10°
Detroit -8°
Denver 16°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -8°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com