October 13, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Traders reacted counterintuitively to extremely bearish storage data Thursday, sending November gas futures up 30.6¢ to $6.741/MMBtu. The rally could indicate that market focus is more on future upside risk, keeping the prompt month corralled for now in a $6.40-$6.90/MMBtu trading range. The 12-month strip rose 15.5¢ to $5.888; the 2023 calendar strip was up 11¢ to $5.698 (Futures contracts).

WTI November crude rose $1.84 to $89.11/bbl.

* * *

With pipeline constraints worsening a gas glut in British Columbia's East Montney Shale play, Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.22 to minus $1.29/MMBtu. Alberta benchmark Aeco rose $1.90 to $2.99. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 26¢ at $6.25. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $5.39, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 57¢ to average $5.50. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 15¢ to average $3.99. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 23¢ to $5.45, SoCal Citygate declined 2¢ to average $7.99 and Northwest Sumas lost 23¢ to average $5.40 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 125 Bcf storage build for the week ended Oct. 7, increasing net working gas inventories to 3,231 Bcf. The injection compares with a five-year average of 82 Bcf and a year-ago build of 86 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average fell to 221 Bcf, or 6.4%. The deficit to last year declined to 126 Bcf, or 3.8%. Next week's data is expected to show a 104 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 73 Bcf (Storage).

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AECOEl Paso - South MainlineEl Paso PermianEmpress PG&E SouthTenn 800 So LA Z1CenterPoint EastAlgonquinWestcoast Station 2-1600%-1400%-1200%-1000%-800%-600%-400%-200%0%200%AECOEl Paso - South MainlineEl Paso PermianEmpress PG&E SouthTenn 800 So LA Z1CenterPoint EastAlgonquinWestcoast Station 2
Note: Oct 13' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (4), down (74).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Oct. 13, 2022 / Flow Date: Oct. 14, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC010203040506070Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Oct 13, '22
Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23($/MMBtu)55.566.577.588.5Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Oct 12 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Oct 13, '22
68%90%71%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Oct 13 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Oct 12 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
243126412631360136973880378237603764Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13(MMcf/d)05001000150020002500300035004000Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
6 Oct 22 7 Oct 22 8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 228000100001200014000160001800020000 6 Oct 22 7 Oct 22 8 Oct 22 9 Oct 2210 Oct 2211 Oct 2212 Oct 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct(MW)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 OctCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 OctWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)7008009001000110012001300140015001600170018001900 3 Oct 4 Oct 5 Oct 6 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 OctPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
104140142118881071011147 October8 October9 October10October11October12October13October14October0204060801001201407 October8 October9 October10October11October12October13October14OctoberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 5°
Orlando -3°
Boston 7°
Washington 3°
Seattle 10°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 11°
Detroit -4°
Denver 2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 5°
Orlando -3°
Boston 7°
Washington 3°
Seattle 10°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 11°
Detroit -4°
Denver 2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -1°

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