October 3, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

EIA: Demand Gets Knocked, Crude Exports Surge

  • Domestic consumption of gasoline and diesel in the US fell during July as high prices undercut post-pandemic demand.
  • Crude oil exports posted a new record in July.
  • Europe is taking more US crude as the market adjusts to Russian disruptions.

Oil demand took a sizable hit in the US this July, government data show, and motor fuel consumption remained below pre-pandemic levels — the direct result of record-high prices at the pump.

In July, the US remained a net exporter of petroleum for a 10th straight month to the tune of 900,000 barrels per day. Net exports have been vacillating around the 1 million b/d mark since March.

Post-Pandemic Letdown

In its Petroleum Supply Monthly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) pegged overall liquids demand in the world’s largest economy at 20.3 million b/d in July.

While the monthly figures are an upward revision of overall demand numbers from preliminary weekly reports, which had pegged July consumption at just over 20 million b/d, the data speaks to stultified demand growth. Overall liquids demand was down 428,000 b/d from the month prior and 391,000 b/d below pre-pandemic levels even though many had expected a breakout in consumption on pent-up demand.

To a large degree, high summer prices for refined products explain the drop. Average retail gasoline prices nationwide propelled over $4 per gallon in July, per the American Automobile Association, even touching an all-time high of $5.02 on Jun. 14. A week later diesel reached $5.82, also a record.

Consumers responded by cutting back. Gasoline demand declined significantly, with average monthly consumption coming in at just under 8.8 million b/d — in line with weekly data and down 378,000 b/d from the month prior and a whopping 548,000 b/d below 2021 levels.

Indeed, barring 2020, when Covid-19 dramatically affected demand, gasoline consumption was the lowest for July in 22 years.

Demand for distillate fuel oils such as diesel and heating oil also eased off in July, dropping 275,000 b/d for the month to 3.7 million b/d. Diesel consumption was up from both July 2021 and 2020 levels but remained almost 300,000 b/d below pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Nonetheless, diesel cracks were much stronger than gasoline for the month, per Energy Intelligence’s downstream model. Fuel exports are helping to inform diesel’s supremacy within the refinery gate as more Russian petroleum supplies and flows are disrupted.

Oil Export Record

Overseas appetite for US crude soared in July. The world’s largest producer saw crude exports reach almost 3.8 million b/d, the highest volume on record and up 1.1 million b/d from the same month last year. This result was bolstered by large releases from strategic reserves.

A significant portion of incremental exports went to Europe. The EU is imposing an embargo on seaborne Russian liquids, and the US is emerging as a key alternative supplier. Europe accounted for almost 1.7 million b/d of crude exports, a regional record and 47.2% of the total, up from 950,000 b/d July 2021. Europe, in fact, took in more crude from the US than the Asia-Pacific, which usually accounts for the bulk of exports, for a fourth straight month. The top single destination for US crude was the Netherlands at 424,000 b/d.

US crude imports were some 6.6 million b/d in July, their highest in 13 months. Canada accounted for the bulk of foreign supply at almost 3.8 million b/d, while Mexico shipped 737,000 b/d. Of the 10 top overseas sources of crude, six were other countries in the Americas. The US has increasingly sourced its crude closer to home as the hemisphere becomes a more self-sufficient petroleum bloc.

Product exports were roughly 5.8 million b/d, with some 54.2% of the total going to Latin America and another 22.5% going to the Asia-Pacific. But as winter approaches and the EU implements its embargo against a backdrop of sky-high natural gas prices, more product is expected to ship to Europe. Imports, meanwhile, continued to hover around 2.1 million b/d.

US Crude Exports, July 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)Jul'22Jul'2120212020
All Destinations3,7962,7042,9633,206
India672560420281
Netherlands378258286298
Korea344325349269
Canada336385311420
United Kingdom243220233247
China206705256481
Singapore177014391
Italy170120114140
Taiwan15947145158
Switzerland1470144
Spain114238663
France967110281
Germany906978101
Thailand711013776
Uruguay5201717
Dominican Republic35162510
Australia2401329
Norway2424386
Peru24231920
Denmark22233031
Ireland22393943
Brazil18285334
Colombia18181915
Nicaragua91299
Belgium1015
Lithuania04826
Other343-41020
US Petroleum Product Exports, July 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsNGLsNGLsMogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21Jul'22Jul'21
All Destinations5,8295,7292,2132,182850949204911,5321,28153125487583490518
Mexico1,0781,226202189423555764227427381654954257
Canada544529244267696232917185292824148118
Japan4513843632870000000071501747
China364364292262000000007210111
Brazil463491575549691002692480024515567
Indonesia2312723127000000000000
India122841026800000000191510
Korea1272271191750000000004749
Chile310219406257101361921270100074
Peru165119302316301329758000096
Netherlands14612072270000261014914202054
Dominican Republic103533620148643611396021
Panama132159721338131497104100011
Guatemala8510213024533235280091711
Ecuador1111154352000046620000221
Colombia1476420542500191700007222
Honduras709521209111338420001702
Costa Rica482987191062138000022
Spain2351171800000100052300
Egypt32273225020000000000
France23309190000010009041
Morocco9855743500000000232000
Singapore83176708901000334031001012
El Salvador333759161701128000002
United Kingdom861383651100035660090522
Bahama Islands9331123957024161780060
Other86967929229147452662971315131441455848
US Crude Oil Imports, July 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaIraqColombiaBrazilEcuadorGrand Total
('000 b/d)Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21
Phillips 665535321015887------16----15----957908
Marathon448274637123--167--19--32--32--838415
BP449385----------------17--17--479394
Exxon Mobil457502------------------------457502
Chevron18351451101261122494348--19--22455539
Valero--11172146----967612--96319610438378
PBF Energy1029396908471----16--32163236413385
Saudi Aramco8962----230183----------------319264
Flint Hills265217------------------------265217
Houston Refining7333358723--336580------13218246
Cenovus Energy206209------------------------206209
Hollyfrontier Refining & Marketing LLC157107------------------------157107
Suncor135114------------------------135114
Par Hawaii Refining--------------------31--31--10534
Monroe Energy--22------------------------105113
Top 152,9522,59661356045831538515817112820781207825,5484,825
Total Companies3,7683,6717376714583383852202711442071741251066,6046,395
Total Imports3,7673,6707376714583383852202711442071741251066,6046,398
US Petroleum Product Imports, July 2022
CanadaIraqMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaIndiaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21
Motor Gasoline129137------935394413719657482682939
Other Oils61261501777961093835942----662737
Middle Distillates166105--------34--3--------198194
Residual Fuel Oil2235----7274--03--5----0160162
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel1317--------7956------6-10140139
LPG/Chemicals137120------1----------------139129
Asphalt6557------------------------7060
Lubricants88--------136--0-10--5523
Petroleum Coke11------------------------145
Grand Total601505--17--180--114--143-114--932,1202,400
Total Companies60150515017141180141114851438311474932,1202,400
Total Imports--507------180--114--143--114--94--2,403
US Petroleum Product Imports, July 2022
CanadaIraqMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaIndiaGrand Total
('000 b/d)Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21Jul '22Jul '21
Valero6249100--1068--710221122110328435
Exxon Mobil221039--3320--024730393013287232
Irving Oil208175------------------------208175
Chevron------17192093----17-17--138103
Atlantic Trading3----------19316--19--1510888
BP107--------197319--15----9296
Shell1922--------2--2371------2582218
Phillips 6645----241317------4--35983
Vitol149--------10----3--------5685
RIL USA--------------------------8479
Saudi Aramco--------613----8676--4340
PBF Energy----11--2125----8----------4387
George E. Warren Corp----------------------------3430
Idemitsu142----------8------------3310
Plains3223------------------------3223
Top 153883011501711214863356911674-74751,5911,714
Total Companies60150515017149180141114851438311474932,1202,400
Total Imports--507------180--114--143--114--94--2,403

Frans Koster, New York