September 21, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Traders arrested a four-session, $1.397 drop in October gas futures Wednesday, with the prompt month rising 6.2¢ to $7.779 per million Btu. The recovery could have been more dramatic if a morning rally into the $8-teens had held; however, increasingly bearish storage and production optics could hold any gas futures rallies in check for now. The 2023 calendar strip fell 5.3¢ to $5.86 as the spring through winter contracts saw modest losses in the 5¢-7¢ range; the 12-month strip was down 2¢ to $6.448 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 93 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Sep. 16 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,864 Bcf, about 10.7% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 81 Bcf and the year-ago build of 77 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 54, just below the 56 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Sep. 23 are for an 86 Bcf injection, with a range from 65 Bcf to 98 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 77 Bcf and year-ago build of 86 Bcf.


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British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 35¢ to $1.58. Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 8¢ to $3.43. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 6¢ at $8.00. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin declined 60¢ to average $6.44. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 13¢ to average $5.11. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 12¢ to $6.79, SoCal Citygate advanced 5¢ to average $7.35 and Northwest Sumas lost 7¢ to average $6.89 (Daily cash prices).

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A proposed 1,800-megawatt gas-fired power plant in West Virginia could be feeding electricity into the PJM Interconnection by the end of the decade. The $3 billion combined-cycle gas plant would be a first in coal-heavy West Virginia where gas generated 3% of the state's power in 2020. A plant of this size could burn up to 300 million cubic feet of gas per day if run at full capacity. The project led by Competitive Power Ventures of Silver Spring, Maryland, would feature technology capable of capturing 90%-95% of carbon emissions, making it eligible for federal funding under the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act.

* * *

Two Canadian LNG export proposals — St. John LNG in the Maritimes and Cedar LNG in Kitimat, British Columbia — want more time to weigh their viability. Repsol's Saint John LNG — formerly Canaport LNG — has asked the Canada Energy Regulator for a six-year extension of its license to import natural gas from the US and export it as LNG from what is now an import terminal. That would give Repsol more time to mull whether the expense of creating liquefaction and export capacity with an eye to the European market would pay off. On the Pacific Coast, Cedar LNG’s partners have been granted a four-year extension by CER to May 2030. This will allow the Haisla First Nation and Pembina additional time to evaluate the project without the pressure of looming operational deadlines.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2CenterPoint EastTransco Station 65AECOTransco Station 45Tetco M2Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTetco M3Tetco ELATransco Leidy Line-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Westcoast Station 2CenterPoint EastTransco Station 65AECOTransco Station 45Tetco M2Millennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTetco M3Tetco ELATransco Leidy Line
Note: Sep 21' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (19), down (57).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Sep. 21, 2022 / Flow Date: Sep. 22, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Sep 21, '22
Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23($/MMBtu)55.566.577.588.599.510Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Sep 20 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Sep 21 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Sep 20 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
135114121293118612991306126811661140Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800200022002400Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
14 Sep 2215 Sep 2216 Sep 2217 Sep 2218 Sep 2219 Sep 2220 Sep 22600080001000012000140001600018000200002200014 Sep 2215 Sep 2216 Sep 2217 Sep 2218 Sep 2219 Sep 2220 Sep 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)120013001400150016001700180019002000210012 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 SepCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350011 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 SepWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220011 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 SepPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
10410913013214515512611415September16September17September18September19September20September21September22September02040608010012014016015September16September17September18September19September20September21September22SeptemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 0°
Boston 3°
Washington 4°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 4°
Denver 2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 6°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 0°
Boston 3°
Washington 4°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 4°
Denver 2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 6°

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