September 12, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

October gas futures climbed 25.3¢ Monday to $8.249 per Million Btu, for a three-session rally of 40.7¢. The move higher was expected, as long market players still saw an opportunity to sell into the rally and unwind long positions after last week’s 79¢ decline, Gelber & Associates analyst said. “While there has been a rebound in NYMEX gas futures prices over the past couple of days, the outlook is not bullish,” the analysts said, citing dry gas production that “is on its way to making new record highs in the near term. … While market bulls want to point to a 350 Bcf storage deficit versus the five-year average …, they can’t continue to ignore record high dry gas production (that is only going to climb higher), which will ultimately loosen the supply/demand imbalance.”

The 12-month strip climbed 14.3¢ to $6.798/MMBtu. The 2023 strip was up 10¢ at $6.156/MMBtu.

WTI crude oil climbed 99¢ to $87.97 per barrel.

* * *

Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $3.04 to $3.10. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 3¢ at $8.08. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $7.52, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 32¢ to average $7.57. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 34¢ to average $6.27. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 11¢ to $7.48, SoCal Citygate advanced 60¢ to average $8.83 and Northwest Sumas gained 8¢ to average $7.42. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose $1.14 to $3.40.


* * *

Another historic heat wave in the West is testing California’s resolve to jettison gas-fired generation in favor of renewables. Four gas plants put on reserve last year rather than retired in 2020 were called into action for the first time last week in a move that rankled anti-fossil fuel activists but helped stave off a system collapse. “We all want to accelerate the elimination of the gas, but it’s a sober reminder of reality,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week in the face of triple-digit temperatures across the state that sent demand for power to a new 52,000 megawatt high. Natural gas still provides roughly 40% of the power generated by the state’s utilities. And the role gas plays has intensified as the need for power peaks in late afternoon as the sun sets on the state's vast solar farms and wind typically flags in the afternoon heat.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2KingsgateAECOKern River DeliveredTetco ELATranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso PermianEmersonEmpress-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%3000%3500%4000%4500%5000%5500%Westcoast Station 2KingsgateAECOKern River DeliveredTetco ELATranswes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso PermianEmersonEmpress
Note: Sep 12' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (63), down (12).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Sep. 12, 2022 / Flow Date: Sep. 13, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Sep 12, '22
Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23($/MMBtu)55.566.577.588.59Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Sep 9 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Sep 12 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Sep 9 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
11299561142124012791246183315471488Sep 4Sep 5Sep 6Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600180020002200Sep 4Sep 5Sep 6Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
5 Sep 22 6 Sep 22 7 Sep 22 8 Sep 22 9 Sep 2210 Sep 2211 Sep 22100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000 5 Sep 22 6 Sep 22 7 Sep 22 8 Sep 22 9 Sep 2210 Sep 2211 Sep 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 Sep(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 SepCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 Sep(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)40060080010001200140016001800200022002400260028003000 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 SepWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 Sep(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 Sep10 Sep11 SepPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
1781691691371351421281196September7September8September9September10September11September12September13September0204060801001201401601806September7September8September9September10September11September12September13SeptemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 6°
Washington 2°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville -7°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit -4°
Denver 2°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 6°
Washington 2°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville -7°
Minneapolis -3°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit -4°
Denver 2°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -2°

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