September 7, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

October US natural gas futures dropped another 30.3¢ on Wednesday to settle at $7.842/MMBtu amid the possibility yet more LNG feedgas could be stranded in the US market. Meanwhile, domestic production is surging and receding fall demand is on the horizon.

"As powerburn starts its seasonal decline in mid-September, it will result in a notable loosening of the supply/demand imbalance, particularly as the dry gas production is slated to climb toward 100 Bcf/d potentially by mid-to-late October,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “Another catalyst that could be adding to the price weakness … is the recent mass sell-off … of European TTF natural gas prices, sparking a surge in margin calls. In the current rising interest rate environment where too many trading houses were leaning long in the US and Europe energy markets, margin calls have been triggered to the tune of $1.5 trillion in recent days.”

The 12-month strip fell 32.3¢ to $6.526. The 2023 strip declined 32.1¢ to $5.951.

WTI crude futures dropped $4.94 to $81.94.

* * *

Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 21¢ to $-0.22. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 36¢ at $8.12. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin declined 36¢ to average $7.63. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 60¢ to average $6.70. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 33¢ to $7.69, SoCal Citygate declined 55¢ to average $12.96 and Northwest Sumas lost 31¢ to average $7.79. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 9¢ to $3.10.

* * *

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Tuesday denied Cheniere Energy’s request to exempt turbines at its two US Gulf Coast terminals from a hazardous pollution rule. Though it’s unclear how the EPA will enforce its denial, the agency’s decision raises the possibility that Cheniere will have to reduce LNG exports while it installs pollution control equipment at its Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities. "Although this decision may result in unwarranted expenditures, we believe that the steps needed to come into full compliance will not result in a material financial or operational impact and that we will be able to continue to reliably supply LNG to customers and countries around the world," Cheniere said in a statement following the EPA denial.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 54 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Sep. 2 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,694 Bcf, about 11.5% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 65 Bcf and the year-ago build of 48 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 90, above the 73 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Sep. 9 are for a 64 Bcf injection, with a range from 51 Bcf to 81 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 82 Bcf and year-ago build of 78 Bcf.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2KingsgateAECOSoCal Border PG&E CitygateEmersonTranswes E of ThoreauPG&E SouthEmpress-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Westcoast Station 2KingsgateAECOSoCal Border PG&E CitygateEmersonTranswes E of ThoreauPG&E SouthEmpress
Note: Sep 7' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (4), down (73).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Sep. 7, 2022 / Flow Date: Sep. 8, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Sep 7, '22
Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.5Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Sep 6 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Sep 7 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Sep 6 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
6566346859021040112995611421240Aug 30Aug 31Sep 1Sep 2Sep 3Sep 4Sep 5Sep 6Sep 7(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200Aug 30Aug 31Sep 1Sep 2Sep 3Sep 4Sep 5Sep 6Sep 7NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
31 Aug 22 1 Sep 22 2 Sep 22 3 Sep 22 4 Sep 22 5 Sep 22 6 Sep 2202000040000600008000010000012000031 Aug 22 1 Sep 22 2 Sep 22 3 Sep 22 4 Sep 22 5 Sep 22 6 Sep 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1300140015001600170018001900200029 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 SepCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000(MMcf/d)4006008001000120014001600180020002200240026002800300028 Aug29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 SepWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)9001000110012001300140015001600170018001900200028 Aug29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug 1 Sep 2 Sep 3 Sep 4 Sep 5 Sep 6 SepPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
1951851841921821781641671September2September3September4September5September6September7September8September0204060801001201401601802001September2September3September4September5September6September7September8SeptemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 3°
Boston -2°
Washington 1°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 3°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 9°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit 0°
Denver 12°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 3°
Boston -2°
Washington 1°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 3°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 9°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit 0°
Denver 12°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 1°

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