August 31, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

October gas futures recovered some of Tuesday's losses, rising 8.5¢ to $9.127 per million Btu on Wednesday. Like on Monday, which saw the contract drop 29.4¢, gas took an early dive into the $8.80s, pressed lower by increasingly bearish fundamentals. However, there seems to be enough uncertainly in the market to keep it elevated for now. The 12-month strip rose 5.2¢ to $7.394; the 2023 calendar strip edged up 3.6¢ to $6.613 (Futures contracts).

WTI October crude fell $2.09 to $89.55/bbl as traders fret about the impact of bearish economic indicators on global demand.

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Alberta benchmark Aeco saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.13 to $2.44 as heavy system constraints eased. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 4¢ at $8.94. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 12¢ to average $8.47, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 8¢ to average $8.44. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub were flat to average $7.81. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 7¢ to $8.70, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.13 to average $15.86 and Northwest Sumas gained 2¢ to average $8.72 (Daily cash prices).

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Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 58 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Aug. 26 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,637 Bcf, about 11.5% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 46 Bcf and the year-ago build of 21 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 85, above the 79 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Sep. 2 are for a 52 Bcf injection, with a range from 46 Bcf to 59 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 65 Bcf and year-ago build of 48 Bcf.

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Texas energy regulators approved new rules this week that require natural gas companies to weatherize their equipment in preparation for extreme conditions. Firms that don’t comply could be fined anywhere from $5,000 to $1 million. The move by the Texas Railroad Commission comes 18 months after the state’s gas and power grids failed during a February 2021 cold snap, resulting in widespread outages and dozens of deaths. The rule applies to “critical infrastructure” as defined during the 2021 legislative session and generally includes most gas wells, pipelines and storage facilities. Due to pushback from the industry, the commission said it will consider exempting small “marginal” wells from the requirements. Some state lawmakers and consumer advocates insist the new weatherization requirements are inadequate.

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Price notice: Due to revisions by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing for SoCal Border for trade day Aug. 29, 2022:

The revised pricing is: Low: $9.90; High: $11.20; Average: $10.33; Volume: 190,821 and Deals: 36.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AECOKingsgateWestcoast Station 2SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredMichConTransco Zone 5SonatEmpressPG&E South-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%AECOKingsgateWestcoast Station 2SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredMichConTransco Zone 5SonatEmpressPG&E South
Note: Aug 31' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (30), down (43).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 31, 2022 / Flow Date: Sep. 1, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 31, '22
Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.599.5Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 30 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 31 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 30 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
308309319284404504912656634Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25Aug 26Aug 27Aug 28Aug 29Aug 30Aug 31(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900100011001200Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25Aug 26Aug 27Aug 28Aug 29Aug 30Aug 31NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
24 Aug 2225 Aug 2226 Aug 2227 Aug 2228 Aug 2229 Aug 2230 Aug 226000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600024 Aug 2225 Aug 2226 Aug 2227 Aug 2228 Aug 2229 Aug 2230 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)13001400150016001700180019002000210022 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350021 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170021 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
18919318518720020819418725 August26 August27 August28 August29 August30 August31 August1September02040608010012014016018020022025 August26 August27 August28 August29 August30 August31 August1SeptemberCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 9°
Washington -1°
Seattle 11°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 9°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 3°
Denver 6°
Austin -4°
Atlanta 3°
Southeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 9°
Washington -1°
Seattle 11°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 9°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 3°
Denver 6°
Austin -4°
Atlanta 3°

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