August 25, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch


Bullish traders shrugged off one of the more bearish storage reports in months, sending September gas futures up 4.5¢ to $9.375 per million Btu. Gains were stronger beginning with the November contract and through next summer. Falling demand and rising production are expected to keep the storage refill at a robust pace with the possibility inventories will enter winter at a comfortable 3.5 trillion cubic feet. The 12-month strip rose 6.6¢ to $7.725; the 2023 calendar strip was up 7.7¢ to $6.546 (Futures contracts).

WTI October crude fell $2.37 to $92.52/bbl.

* * *

The Energy Information Administration reported a 60 Bcf storage build for the week ended Aug. 19, increasing net working gas inventories to 2,579 Bcf. The injection compares with a year-ago build of 32 Bcf and a five-year average injection of 46 Bcf, and was 2 Bcf above analysts' consensus expectations. Inventories climbed to 353 Bcf, or 12%, below the five-year average. The deficit to last year fell to 268 Bcf, or 9.4%. Next week's data is expected to show a 56 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 46 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 51¢ to $1.32. Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 38¢ to $2.12. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 3¢ at $9.31. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up $1.31 to average $10.15, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 42¢ to average $8.76. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub averaged $8.07. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal was flat at $8.66, SoCal Citygate advanced 6¢ to average $9.88 and Northwest Sumas averaged $8.49 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Shell has inked a 20-year LNG supply with Energy Transfer for 2.1 million tons per year (288 MMcf/d). Supply will be sourced from ET’s proposed Lake Charles, Louisiana, facility. Shell was an original backer of the Lake Charles project, which proposes to add liquefaction and export facilities to a now-idle import terminal. The plan was permitted in 2015 to produce 16.4 million tons/yr of LNG (2.2 Bcf/d). Shell quit the project two years ago as gas prices and demand tumbled during the Covid pandemic.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2AECOTransco Z6 - NYTransco Zone 4EmpressTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 200-legMillennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Westcoast Station 2AECOTransco Z6 - NYTransco Zone 4EmpressTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 200-legMillennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsTenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin
Note: Aug 25' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (43), down (27).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 25, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 26, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 25, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.599.510Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 24 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Aug 25, '22
55%74%57%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 25 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 24 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
352268273692674445308309319Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19Aug 20Aug 21Aug 22Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19Aug 20Aug 21Aug 22Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
18 Aug 2219 Aug 2220 Aug 2221 Aug 2222 Aug 2223 Aug 2224 Aug 229000100001100012000130001400015000160001700018 Aug 2219 Aug 2220 Aug 2221 Aug 2222 Aug 2223 Aug 2224 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)1400150016001700180019002000210016 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000110001200013000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350015 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 Aug(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000(MMcf/d)800850900950100010501100115012001250130015 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug24 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
17319117116817619018318219 August20 August21 August22 August23 August24 August25 August26 August02040608010012014016018020019 August20 August21 August22 August23 August24 August25 August26 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 5°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 3°
Seattle 13°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 3°
Denver -2°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York 5°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 3°
Seattle 13°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 3°
Denver -2°
Austin -2°
Atlanta -2°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com