August 24, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

September gas futures regained some of Tuesday's 48.7¢ fall as bullish traders pushed the contract 13.7¢ higher Wednesday to $9.33 per million Btu. The rally a day after Freeport LNG announced its 2 billion cubic feet per day outage will drag on into November shows just how divorced from physical fundamentals this rally has gotten, and indicates that another test of $10/MMBtu resistance could be brewing. The 12-month strip rose 9.8¢ to $7.659; the 2023 calendar strip was up 5.1¢ to $6.469 (Futures contracts).

WTI October crude rose $1.15 to $94.89/bbl on rumors that other Opec members could cut production if Iranian supply returns to the market.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 58 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Aug. 19 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,577 Bcf, about 12.1% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 46 Bcf and the year-ago build of 32 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 85, above the 83 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Aug. 26 are for a 56 Bcf injection, with a range from 17 Bcf to 68 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 46 Bcf and year-ago build of 21 Bcf.

* * *

Alberta benchmark Aeco saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 30¢ to $1.74. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 48¢ at $9.28. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 57¢ to average $8.84, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 43¢ to average $9.18. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 27¢ to average $8.06. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 32¢ to $8.66 and SoCal Citygate declined 30¢ to average $9.82 (Daily spot prices).

* * *

In spite of fierce opposition, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved Mountain Valley Pipeline’s request to extend its existing certificate to Oct. 16, 2026. The commission also extended the certificate for the related Greene Interconnect project by another four years. The FERC order states that project sponsor Equitrans Midstream remains committed to the project, brushing aside assertions completion is “unforeseeable.” MVP’s prospects brightened in recent weeks after picking up support from key members of Congress and the White House. Pipeline officials say they expect the 303-mile, 2 billion cubic feet per day pipeline from West Virginia to southern Virginia to secure key federal permits vacated by the Fourth US Circuit Court of Appeals, allowing the final 6% of construction to proceed. If so, operations could begin in the second half of 2023.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AECOPG&E South   EmersonTetco M3StanfieldMalinEmpress-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%AECOPG&E South   EmersonTetco M3StanfieldMalinEmpress
Note: Aug 24' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (2), down (74).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 24, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 25, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 24, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.599.510Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 23 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 24 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 23 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
305352268273692674445308309Aug 16Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19Aug 20Aug 21Aug 22Aug 23Aug 24(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800Aug 16Aug 17Aug 18Aug 19Aug 20Aug 21Aug 22Aug 23Aug 24NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
17 Aug 2218 Aug 2219 Aug 2220 Aug 2221 Aug 2222 Aug 2223 Aug 22900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800017 Aug 2218 Aug 2219 Aug 2220 Aug 2221 Aug 2222 Aug 2223 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)1400150016001700180019002000210015 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000110001200013000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350014 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 Aug(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000(MMcf/d)800850900950100010501100115012001250130014 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
17417319117116817618718618 August19 August20 August21 August22 August23 August24 August25 August02040608010012014016018020018 August19 August20 August21 August22 August23 August24 August25 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 2°
Seattle 9°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 5°
Denver 0°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York 4°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 2°
Seattle 9°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit 5°
Denver 0°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -2°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com