August 17, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

September gas futures fell back from 14-year highs reached on Monday, closing down 8.5¢ Tuesday at $9.244 per million Btu. Given increasingly bearish fundamentals on the horizon, the recent rally might appear ill-timed. However, prices might find even more support if Thursday's storage report is as bullish as expected, although a miss like last week's could trigger a hard reversal. The 12-month strip fell 5.5¢ to $7.545; the 2023 calendar strip fell 3.3¢ to $6.341 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude rose $1.58 to $88.11/bbl, the day after falling to a six-month low as a possible nuclear deal could soon return 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to market.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 34 billion cubic foot build into storage for the week ended Aug. 12 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,535 Bcf, about 12.2% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 47 Bcf and the year-ago build of 46 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 99, well above the 86 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Aug. 19 are for a 59 Bcf injection, with a range from 33 Bcf to 72 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 46 Bcf and year-ago build of 32 Bcf.

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British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 40¢ to minus 8¢ as maintenance on the region's pipelines hems it in. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 38¢ to $2.54. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 24¢ at $9.51. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 11¢ to average $8.44, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 15¢ to average $8.54. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 14¢ to average $8.61. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 6¢ to $8.74, SoCal Citygate declined 6¢ to average $12.07 and Northwest Sumas lost 15¢ to average $8.60 (Daily cash prices).

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Russian gas giant Gazprom is warning its European customers that spot gas prices could exceed more than $110/MMBtu this winter. If so, it will ensure that US LNG exports will run at peak levels around 13 billion cubic feet a day if the 2 Bcf/d Freeport LNG outage ends in October as expected. Gazprom said in a statement that its price outlook is "conservative." The company said Europe still needs to inject 840 billion cubic feet of gas into storage if it wants to match the stockpile it had at the start of the 2019-20 winter heating season, which equated to 97% of storage capacity. Meanwhile, EU data shows that the 27-nation bloc is on track to reach its 80% storage target by November, as injections into storage continue despite the current tight market. EU gas stocks are currently just under 75% full. Gazprom has helped drive gas prices up by delivering less gas to Europe. The government-controlled company denies that it is deliberately withholding supply and says the reduced flows are a consequence of European sanctions against Russia. Some observers have suggested Gazprom might be trying to sabotage the EU's storage injection campaign to persuade European governments to ease sanctions against Russia and dial down their support for Ukraine.
Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tetco WLATransco Station 30Tenn Zone 0OneokTenn Gas Zone 6NW RockiesMalinEmersonAECOWestcoast Station 2-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%Tetco WLATransco Station 30Tenn Zone 0OneokTenn Gas Zone 6NW RockiesMalinEmersonAECOWestcoast Station 2
Note: Aug 17' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (58), down (18).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 17, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 18, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 17, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.599.5Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 16 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 17 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 16 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
175129866272277287305352Aug 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug 12Aug 13Aug 14Aug 15Aug 16Aug 17(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700Aug 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug 12Aug 13Aug 14Aug 15Aug 16Aug 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
10 Aug 2211 Aug 2212 Aug 2213 Aug 2214 Aug 2215 Aug 2216 Aug 228000100001200014000160001800020000220002400010 Aug 2211 Aug 2212 Aug 2213 Aug 2214 Aug 2215 Aug 2216 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)14001500160017001800190020002100 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug(MW)020004000600080001000012000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)800900100011001200130014001500160017001800 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
19918115115716215515116711 August12 August13 August14 August15 August16 August17 August18 August02040608010012014016018020011 August12 August13 August14 August15 August16 August17 August18 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 0°
Boston -5°
Washington -7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -4°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit -3°
Denver -4°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -6°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 0°
Boston -5°
Washington -7°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia -4°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit -3°
Denver -4°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -6°

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