August 15, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

September gas futures fell 4¢ to $8.728 per million Btu on Monday, recovering from a steep morning dive into the $8.40s. The recovery defied a number of bearish headwinds, especially weather forecasts for below-average August heat in major southern US gas markets. But those are future drivers. Bulls could soon make a successful run to $9/MMBtu as the forward curve saw robust gains beginning in spring 2023. The 12-month strip rose 6.3¢ to $7.186; the 2023 calendar strip was up 12.9¢ to $6.087 (Futures prices).

WTI September crude fell $2.68 to $89.41/bbl as supply concerns ease in part as Shell resumes production at three Gulf of Mexico platforms and Saudi Arabia indicates it will increase production.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.94 to 36¢/MMBtu. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 5¢ to $2.61. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 18¢ at $8.56. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $7.68, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 3¢ to average $7.56. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 7¢ to average $7.67. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 7¢ to $8.16, SoCal Citygate advanced $1.53 to average $12.46 and Northwest Sumas lost 11¢ to average $8.08 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Asia might not be the growing powerhouse demand market LNG operators worldwide have poured untold billions into cultivating. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis expects Asian natural gas demand to decline this year as soaring European demand pushes prices to levels many Asian countries cannot afford. And its study cites International Energy Agency findings that there will be 60% less demand growth through 2025 than in the previous five-year period. Key developing markets are seeing a sharp pivot from gas, with China down 20% from this time last year as Northeast Asia LNG prices rose from $18/MMBtu to $45/MMBtu over the period. And moves made today to lessen gas use, such as building coal-fired power capacity, will erode future potential gas demand.

* * *

US gas production in the seven major US shale plays is expected to rise 673 million cubic feet per day in September, according to the Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report. The Haynesville is seen leading the rise with an additional 192 MMcf/d, bringing the shale play's output to a record 15.8 billion cubic feet per day. The Permian Basin is seen increasing 167 MMcf/d to 20.5 Bcf/d and Appalachia came in third with a 154 MMcf/d increase to 35.5 Bcf/d.

Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderTranswes E of ThoreauTenn 800 So LA Z1PanhandleOneokEmpressEmersonWestcoast Station 2-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%SoCal CitygateKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderTranswes E of ThoreauTenn 800 So LA Z1PanhandleOneokEmpressEmersonWestcoast Station 2
Note: Aug 15' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (14), down (57).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 15, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 16, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 15, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.59Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 12 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 15 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 12 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
475406175129866272277287Aug 7Aug 8Aug 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug 12Aug 13Aug 14Aug 15(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Aug 7Aug 8Aug 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug 12Aug 13Aug 14Aug 15NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
6 Aug 22 7 Aug 22 8 Aug 22 9 Aug 2210 Aug 2211 Aug 2212 Aug 2280001000012000140001600018000200002200024000 6 Aug 22 7 Aug 22 8 Aug 22 9 Aug 2210 Aug 2211 Aug 2212 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)1500155016001650170017501800185019001950200020502100 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)900100011001200130014001500160017001800 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2302061991811511571611579 August10 August11 August12 August13 August14 August15 August16 August0204060801001201401601802002202409 August10 August11 August12 August13 August14 August15 August16 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 0°
Boston 1°
Washington -6°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit -1°
Denver -4°
Austin -1°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 0°
Boston 1°
Washington -6°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit -1°
Denver -4°
Austin -1°
Atlanta -1°

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