August 9, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

September gas futures clawed back more than half Monday's losses, rising 24.4¢ Tuesday to $7.833 per million Btu. Bulls mounted a short-covering rally after Monday's steep loss as gas burns are still relatively high. However, with temperatures beginning to moderate and production near all time highs, a move above $8/MMBtu is doubtful in the short-term. The 12-month strip rose 16¢ to $6.481; the 2023 calendar strip was up 9.8¢ to $5.521 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude fell 26¢ to $90.50/bbl.

* * *

Southern California supply source El Paso - South Mainline saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.47 to $11.65. SoCal Citygate advanced 80¢ to average $11.02. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 10¢ at $7.88. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 8¢ to average $7.62, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 82¢ to average $7.62. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 11¢ to average $6.96. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 24¢ to $7.66 and Northwest Sumas gained 21¢ to average $7.59. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 6¢ to $3.22 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

TC Energy has struck a deal with Mexico’s state-owned electricity utility that could ultimately benefit Texas producers with ties to Agua Dulce in South Texas by mid-decade. The partnership will pursue construction of the Southeast Gateway Pipeline, a $4.5 billion, 444-mile offshore gasline that will carry as much as 1.3 billion cubic feet of supply per day toward markets in the Yucatan and into infrastructure connected to a potential LNG export project on the Pacific coast. The marine pipeline will originate offshore Tuxpan, Veracruz, where it will interconnect with TC Energy's Sur de Texas that is mainly supplied by pipelines bringing supply from Agua Dulce. In June 2021, Sur de Texas was still flowing 1.7 Bcf/d of its 2.6 Bcf/d capacity due to years of conflict stalling key projects inside Mexico, which the broader agreement aims to settle.

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The US Energy Information Administration expects spot Henry Hub prices to peak in the upcoming fourth quarter, averaging $7.59/MMBtu, before falling more than $3/MMBtu in the spring. In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the agency forecasts a $7.48/MMBtu average in July-September, $7.59/MMBtu in October-December, $7.26/MMBtu in January-March and $4.28/MMBtu in April-June. The prices are much higher than in last month’s STEO in part due to the impact of ongoing hot weather, the EIA said. “We now forecast that the Henry Hub price will average $7.54/MMBtu during the second half of 2022 compared with a forecast of $5.97/MMBtu in the last STEO. We have also raised our forecast average price for 2023 from $4.76/MMBtu to $5.10/MMBtu.”
Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateSoCal BorderEmersonMalinWestcoast Station 2Kern - Wheeler RidgeIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6-10%-5%0%5%10%15%El Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateSoCal BorderEmersonMalinWestcoast Station 2Kern - Wheeler RidgeIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Aug 9' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (64), down (13).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 9, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 10, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 9, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.58Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 8 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 9 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 8 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
398373312506518695475406175Aug 1Aug 2Aug 3Aug 4Aug 5Aug 6Aug 7Aug 8Aug 9(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900100011001200Aug 1Aug 2Aug 3Aug 4Aug 5Aug 6Aug 7Aug 8Aug 9NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
2 Aug 22 3 Aug 22 4 Aug 22 5 Aug 22 6 Aug 22 7 Aug 22 8 Aug 2280001000012000140001600018000200002200024000 2 Aug 22 3 Aug 22 4 Aug 22 5 Aug 22 6 Aug 22 7 Aug 22 8 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)12001300140015001600170018001900200031 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400030 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)60070080090010001100120013001400150016001700180030 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2312222312262322322251953 August4 August5 August6 August7 August8 August9 August10 August0204060801001201401601802002202403 August4 August5 August6 August7 August8 August9 August10 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 9°
Orlando -1°
Boston 9°
Washington 8°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 10°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis -2°
Los Angeles 5°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit -4°
Denver 3°
Austin 1°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 9°
Orlando -1°
Boston 9°
Washington 8°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 10°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis -2°
Los Angeles 5°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit -4°
Denver 3°
Austin 1°
Atlanta -1°

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