August 3, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

September natural gas futures roared higher in the last hour of trading after news broke that Freeport LNG could restart almost all operations in October. The September contract, which had slumped into the $7.50s, shot as high as $8.48 before settling at $8.266 per million Btu. The 56¢ gain almost recovered Tuesday’s 57.7¢ fall. Whether the contract will rise from here depends on how the market reacts once it has more time to absorb the Freeport news in light of Thursday's storage data. The 12-month strip rose 38¢ to $6.748; the 2023 calendar strip was up 24.9¢ to $5.666 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude fell $3.76 to $90.66/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 29 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Jul. 29 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,445 Bcf, about 12.5% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 33 Bcf and the year-ago build of 16 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 105, well above the 90 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Aug. 5 are for a 36 Bcf injection, with a range from 30 Bcf to 42 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 45 Bcf and year-ago build of 44 Bcf.

* * *

British Columbia's Westcoast Station 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 71¢ to $3.01. Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 35¢ to $3.79. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 11¢ at $7.81. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 75¢ to average $8.20, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 64¢ to average $8.47. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 7¢ to average $6.79. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 1¢ to $7.43, SoCal Citygate advanced 27¢ to average $9.38 and Northwest Sumas gained 9¢ to average $7.41 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Freeport LNG said Wednesday it had entered into a consent agreement with the Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration that could allow it to resume almost all operations in October. The terminal has been idle since an explosion and fire Jun. 8, sidelining demand for 2 Bcf/d in feed gas. Freeport has long maintained that some operations would be allowed to resume in October, but in its latest statement it said "initial operations are expected to consist of three liquefaction trains, two LNG storage tanks and one LNG loading dock, which the company believes will enable delivery of approximately 2 Bcf/d per day of LNG, enough to support its existing long-term customer agreements."
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Chesapeake Energy this week outlined plans to exit the oil market by shedding its Eagle Ford Shale assets and focus on serving rapidly growing natural gas markets along the US Gulf Coast. Until the Eagle Ford assets are sold off, potentially through multiple transactions, the company will shift capital spending away from the Texas shale oil basin while growing its Haynesville Shale gas production in Texas and Louisiana by up to 7% next year.

* * *

Equitrans Midstream officials said they are more hopeful of completing the $6.6 billion Mountain Valley Pipeline in the second half of 2023. On its second quarter earnings call Tuesday, officials said efforts to have key federal permits reissued were on schedule and might be speeded up after US Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) secured a commitment from President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to have the permits reissued as soon as possible.
Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Z6 - NYAlgonquinTransco Z6 - Non-NYEmersonTetco M3ANR SEFlorida Zone 3CenterPoint EastAECOWestcoast Station 2-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Transco Z6 - NYAlgonquinTransco Z6 - Non-NYEmersonTetco M3ANR SEFlorida Zone 3CenterPoint EastAECOWestcoast Station 2
Note: Aug 3' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (35), down (46).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Aug. 3, 2022 / Flow Date: Aug. 4, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Aug 3, '22
Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.588.5Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Aug 2 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Aug 3 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Aug 2 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
303304333411437342398373312Jul 26Jul 27Jul 28Jul 29Jul 30Jul 31Aug 1Aug 2Aug 3(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900100011001200Jul 26Jul 27Jul 28Jul 29Jul 30Jul 31Aug 1Aug 2Aug 3NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
27 Jul 2228 Jul 2229 Jul 2230 Jul 2231 Jul 22 1 Aug 22 2 Aug 2280009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700027 Jul 2228 Jul 2229 Jul 2230 Jul 2231 Jul 22 1 Aug 22 2 Aug 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
25 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)110012001300140015001600170018001900200025 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 AugCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
24 Jul25 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400024 Jul25 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 AugWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
24 Jul25 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 Aug(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)6008001000120014001600180024 Jul25 Jul26 Jul27 Jul28 Jul29 Jul30 Jul31 Jul 1 Aug 2 AugPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
20519820520519822221422228 July29 July30 July31 July1 August2 August3 August4 August02040608010012014016018020022024028 July29 July30 July31 July1 August2 August3 August4 AugustCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando -1°
Boston 0°
Washington 5°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 7°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 7°
Denver 7°
Austin 5°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando -1°
Boston 0°
Washington 5°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 7°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 7°
Denver 7°
Austin 5°
Atlanta 1°

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