August 1, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

EIA: US Oil Demand Growth Grinds to Halt in May

  • After blistering start of the year, US demand growth peters out;

  • Higher fuel prices, economic slowdown seem to take their toll;

  • As expected, only jet fuel demand takes off as pandemic wanes.

The frantic pace of US demand growth in the first three months of 2002 slowed to a crawl in April and ground to a halt in May — just as oil prices moved rapidly higher in that period and economic growth was sliding into a technical recession. The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US oil consumption in May 2022 averaged 20.08 million barrels per day, just behind the levels seen in May 2019. US oil demand still grew by 500,000 b/d April to 19.96 million b/d, but that was a significant slowdown from the 1.8 million b/d demand increase seen in the first quarter of the year.

Consumers are sensitive to US gasoline prices, which rose from an average $3.50 per gallon in the first three months to $3.95/gallon in April and $4.25/gallon in May, EIA data show. Diesel picked up from $4.25/gallon in the first quarter to $5.15/gallon in April and $5.55/gallon in May. Since then, US gasoline has averaged $4.60/gallon and US diesel $5.60/gallon, EIA data show.

Going Flat

US gasoline demand in April and May was flat on the year, with May consumption seen at 9.1 million b/d in the EIA’s latest Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). May diesel intake was also flat at 3.8 million b/d. The only grower of key fuels was jet fuel, as people started to travel more with the impact of the pandemic waning. Jet fuel demand in May at 1.57 million b/d was 250,000 b/d higher than in May 2021.

The PSM data showed that US product demand was 20.077 million b/d in May, which came in 455,000 b/d higher than the weekly EIA data had suggested and on par with 2021. Refiner Valero told investors that it thinks demand is again keeping up with last year after a dip in July. Preliminary weekly data suggest that July fuel consumption was just below 20 million b/d, like 2021. Looking forward, summer demand should pick up before uncertainty creeps in during the fall.

Net Outflows

The US was again a net exporter of fuels in May, according to PSM data. The country exported 1 million b/d more than it imported. Total US crude oil imports were 6.16 million b/d in May while crude exports were 3.44 million b/d. Refined products imports came to 2.18 million b/d while products exports came in at 5.88 million b/d.

US Crude Oil Imports, May 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaColombiaIraqEcuadorNigeriaGrand Total
('000 b/d)May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21
Phillips 66522522879534-32-----4950873806
Marathon310270723210---98-55-55-609302
Chevron167914281756461426352336633-418552
Exxon Mobil39624419-----------416244
Valero-23193166--18-736544-44-396375
BP388460------------388469
PBF Energy97113647371523322--555955-367398
Saudi Aramco7744--198132--------305241
Flint Hills282244------------282244
Cenovus Energy23496------------23496
Houston Refining8335355324-64110------231197
PDV Midwest Refining171171------------171171
Hollyfrontier Refining & Marketing LLC122100------------122100
Canada Imperial12139------------12139
Suncor121119------------121119
Top 152,9412,558613499412247209174234116187125236505,0534,353
Total Companies3,6853,5447726004122552752062341621871811581046,1635,828
Total Imports3,6843,5447726004122552752062341621871811581046,1635,828
US Petroleum Product Imports, May 2022
CanadaSaudi ArabiaMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsIndiaUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21
Exxon Mobil25948171920-1083---4283324
Valero4026511940201616-1-11-16264394
Irving Oil200216------------200216
Shell8219---10103375101510-165198
Chevron--24-4025-----1-3141106
George E. Warren Corp----------4-4109976
Atlantic Trading--254611--17-1272127-92110
Phillips 66162---31515881131137870
BP1117-----1816211021101274177
Trafigura0-334--5-4702801564188
Tartan Oil---11--17--11701704738
PBF Energy----3121-5--4-4-4677
Saudi Aramco--102-12-14-----4216
Petrogas Energy3130------------3130
Marathon---20----30….
Top 15330321172129141908592831168310083631,6552,019
Total Companies52051218314016612814119611315410411399882,1772,741
Total Imports52151318314016612814119611315410411399882,1772,742
US Petroleum Product Imports, May 2022
CanadaSaudi ArabiaMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsIndiaUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21May '22May '21
Motor Gasoline1411585365--486287138939598708791,120
Other Oils221310933864926--11-118507703
Middle Distillates1291091026--16111110-0--211307
Residual Fuel Oil221611-8079--156----205148
LPG/Chemicals134125------------136125
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel1514-6--64103---18--124192
Asphalt4761------------5061
Lubricants914----1213-00---4961
Petroleum Coke10-9--------0-924
Fuel Ethanol--------------8-
Total Companies52051218314014112814119611315410411399882,1772,741
Total Imports52151318314016612814119611315410411399882,1772,742

US Crude Exports, May 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)May'22May'2120192018
All Destinations3,4422,7362,9822,048
India672560255151
Netherlands378258279132
Korea344325419242
Canada336385479440
United Kingdom243220244167
China206705137231
Singapore17707843
Italy170120128108
Taiwan15947169131
Switzerland147024
Spain114234722
France96718823
Germany9069273
Thailand7110110938
Uruguay520155
Dominican Republic35161410
Australia240410
Norway24242435
Peru2423287
Denmark22233517
Ireland22394313
Brazil18284825
Colombia18181824
Nicaragua912116
Belgium1040
Lithuania04820
Other0-37900
US Petroleum Product Exports, May 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsNGLsNGLsMogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21May'22May'21
All Destinations5,8795,5342,3102,285922941163911,1901,01311281593493588630
Mexico1,2631,2791461395746195640350335131676624869
Canada44849419429843251212291213272119135100
Japan4414923573840000000072521256
China4073753212640000000085100111
Brazil3673509691029100991260072459059
Indonesia112104112104000000000000
India165182671320000020087341014
Korea18623015716600000080601564
Chile30692431767017417159060076
Peru1501081516312911074570060135
Netherlands1501569266000016724173872
Dominican Republic969947531817531919065011
Panama13812662252816958843020031
Guatemala891188534562129470016811
Ecuador11070343401000371100713312
Colombia1028050192900381000004041
Honduras448614191020311534000913
Costa Rica6850772920732216001024
Spain7534362500001000027920
Egypt84147414000000009010
France323317230000100000852
Morocco55465041000010004500
Singapore61623617040021600002324
El Salvador472913715141186008021
United Kingdom57100314516201543001373
Bahama Islands5832122712321916800000
Other769695330313272317151681133820901199992

John van Schaik, New York