July 27, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Soaring August gas futures pulled back at expiry, falling 30.6¢, or 3.5%, to roll off the board at $8.687 per million Btu. That the August contract finale was in the ballpark of the $8.908/MMBtu June contract settlement shows how storage concerns have reemerged after being knocked down by Jun. 8 Freeport LNG explosion and fire that curtailed 2 billion cubic feet per day of gas demand. But torrid summer heat has not only absorbed that gas; it has blunted the seasonal storage refill and widened the now 328 Bcf deficit to the five-year average.

September gas futures fell 27.1¢ to $8.554/MMBtu. The 12-month strip fell 19.8¢ to $7.252; the 2023 calendar strip was down 12.7¢ to $5.808 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude rose $2.79 to $97.77/bbl.
* * *

Analysts are anticipating a smaller-than-normal 22 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Jul. 22 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,423 Bcf, about 12.2% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 32 Bcf and the year-ago build of 38 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 113, well above the 89 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jul. 29 are for a 30 Bcf injection, with a range from 23 Bcf to 37 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 33 Bcf and year-ago build of 16 Bcf.
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Louisiana's Sonat saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $4.23 to $9.31. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 72¢ at $8.67. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 39¢ to average $8.02, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 48¢ to average $8.30. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 38¢ to average $7.95. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 43¢ to $8.24, SoCal Citygate declined 89¢ to average $9.01 and Northwest Sumas gained 18¢ to average $7.90. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 27¢ to $4.85 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

NextDecade has signed a 20-year contract to supply 1 million tons per year of LNG (137 million cubic feet per day) to a unit of Exxon Mobil from its proposed Rio Grande LNG export project in Brownsville, Texas. The firm said Wednesday the LNG will be sourced from the first two liquefaction trains at Rio Grande, with the first train expected to start commercial operations as early as 2026. The trains have not been sanctioned, but NextDecade said it anticipates making a positive final investment decision on up to three trains by the end of the year.

* * *

More than 6,100 jobs were added in the Texas upstream oil and natural gas sector from May to June, the highest monthly increase reported by the Texas Workforce Commission since it began recording job data in 1990. The previous record was set in June 2011 when the state added 5,600 jobs. There are an estimated 194,900 people working in the Lone Star State's upstream sector, up 37,900 since employment bottomed out in September 2020. The West Texas Permian Basin is the state's powerhouse with oil and associated gas output reaching new records of 5.3 million barrels per day and 20.2 Bcf/d, respectively. The EIA's latest Drilling Productivity report sees oil and gas production continuing to set records in July and August.

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The US might get some additional competition in the race to supply LNG to Europe as the EU is looking to double imports of LNG from Nigeria as it steps up its quest to secure replacement for Russian gas. The EU currently gets around 14% of its LNG from Nigeria, all of which comes from Shell-led Nigeria LNG. But there are strong headwinds to ramping that up. Actual output from the project has been running far below its 3 Bcf/d capacity due to insufficient gas feedstock. So its output is mostly exported under long-term contracts, leaving little LNG available for spot sales.

* * *

Price notice: Due to a revision by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing for PG&E Citygate for trade day Jul. 25, 2022.

The revised pricing is: Low: $9.45; High: $9.45; Average: $9.45; Volume: 46,000 and Deals: 9.


Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW Sumas    Transco Zone 4Transco Zone 5Transco Station 65Florida Zone 3Sonat-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%NW Sumas    Transco Zone 4Transco Zone 5Transco Station 65Florida Zone 3Sonat
Note: Jul 27' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (73).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jul. 27, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 28, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jul 27, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.59Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jul 26 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jul 27 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jul 26 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
567585585562547613346303304Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26Jul 27(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26Jul 27NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
20 Jul 2221 Jul 2222 Jul 2223 Jul 2224 Jul 2225 Jul 2226 Jul 225000100001500020000250003000035000400004500020 Jul 2221 Jul 2222 Jul 2223 Jul 2224 Jul 2225 Jul 2226 Jul 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 Jul(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)120014001600180020002200240018 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 JulCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 Jul(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350017 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 JulWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 Jul(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200017 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul25 Jul26 JulPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
25224923923521319019920421 July22 July23 July24 July25 July26 July27 July28 July02040608010012014016018020022024026021 July22 July23 July24 July25 July26 July27 July28 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 2°
Boston -3°
Washington -2°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 3°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit -2°
Denver 2°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 2°
Boston -3°
Washington -2°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 3°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit -2°
Denver 2°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 1°

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