July 25, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

US gas bulls continued a drive toward $9 per million Btu Monday as hot forecasts for August persist. August gas futures rose 42.8¢ to $8.727/MMBtu, capping a two-session, 79.5¢ rally. Bears have little left in the tank to stall the advance as cooling loads across the eastern US peak. The 12-month strip rose 30.6¢ to $7.317; the 2023 calendar strip was up 19.9¢ to $5.917 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude rose $2.00 to $96.70/bbl.

* * *

The Pacific Northwest border crossing at Sumas, Washington, saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.00 to $6.31. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 67¢ to $4.41. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 39¢ at $8.52. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 89¢ to average $7.86, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $1.20 to average $8.20. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 12¢ to average $7.85. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 21¢ to $8.16 and SoCal Citygate advanced 48¢ to average $9.17 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter during the first half of 2022, according to data from CEDIGAZ. US LNG exports increased by 12% in the first six months of the year, averaging 11.2 billion cubic feet per day, due to more export capacity, increased international natural gas and LNG prices, and higher global demand, particularly in Europe, CEDIGAZ said. US exports in the second half of the year could be lower due to the ongoing outage at Freeport LNG; nonetheless, the Energy Information Administration estimates that as of July 2022, US liquefaction capacity averaged 11.4 Bcf/d, with a shorter-term peak capacity of 13.9 Bcf/d.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW SumasAECOTransco Station 65Transco Zone 5Transco Zone 4Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Z6 - NYEmpressAlgonquinEmerson-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NW SumasAECOTransco Station 65Transco Zone 5Transco Zone 4Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Z6 - NYEmpressAlgonquinEmerson
Note: Jul 25' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (65), down (11).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jul. 25, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 26, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jul 25, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.59Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jul 22 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jul 25 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jul 22 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
291302567585585562547613346Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
18 Jul 2219 Jul 2220 Jul 2221 Jul 2222 Jul 2223 Jul 2224 Jul 22500010000150002000025000300003500040000450005000018 Jul 2219 Jul 2220 Jul 2221 Jul 2222 Jul 2223 Jul 2224 Jul 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)120014001600180020002200240016 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 JulCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350015 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 JulWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 Jul(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200015 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23 Jul24 JulPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
24326325224923923520819619 July20 July21 July22 July23 July24 July25 July26 July05010015020025019 July20 July21 July22 July23 July24 July25 July26 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 8°
Orlando 1°
Boston 9°
Washington 6°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit -3°
Denver -1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 8°
Orlando 1°
Boston 9°
Washington 6°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis -7°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas 2°
Detroit -3°
Denver -1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -1°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com