July 21, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

US natural gas storage inventories grew a paltry 32 billion cubic feet during the scorching week ended Jul. 15. But while it was a bullish report by any measure — analysts' consensus was for a 47-Bcf build — August gas futures fell 7.5¢ to $7.932 per million Btu as traders elected to look beyond the current heat wave at least for a day. The 12-month strip fell 9.3¢ to $6.755; the 2023 calendar strip was off 9.8¢ to $5.595 (Futures contracts).

WTI September crude fell $3.53 to $96.35/bbl in its first session as prompt month.

* * *

The Energy Information Administration reported a 32 Bcf build for the week ended Jul. 15, increasing net working gas inventories to 2,401 Bcf. The injection compares with a year-ago build of 50 Bcf and a five-year average build of 41 Bcf, and was 15 Bcf below analyst expectations. Inventories climbed to 328 Bcf, or 12% below the five-year average. The deficit to last year increased to 270 Bcf, or 10.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 30 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 32 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

As the Northeast regains its footing from the heat wave's shock, Iroquois Zone 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $12.57 to $9.35. Elsewhere in the region, Transco zone 6 New York went up $1.17 to average $9.40, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $12.02 to average $12.09. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 44¢ at $8.00. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 36¢ to average $7.50. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 33¢ to $7.70, SoCal Citygate was flat to average $8.75 and Northwest Sumas gained 48¢ to average $7.37. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 17¢ to $4.03 (Daily cash prices).

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Cheniere Energy Marketing has entered into a long-term LNG sale and purchase agreement with PetroChina International to purchase up to 1.8 million tons per year (246 million cubic feet per day) of LNG. The purchase price is indexed to the Henry Hub price plus a fixed liquefaction fee. Deliveries under the SPA will begin in 2026, reaching the full 1.8 million tons/yr in 2028, and continue through 2050. The durations of the two deals — through 2050, past when the European Commission would like to see long-term LNG contracts ended — is indicative of the different attitude toward the LNG trade in Asia than in Europe.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Z6 - NYTetco M2Eastern Gas NorthTransco Zone 4Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Tetco M3Transco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Z6 - NYTetco M2Eastern Gas NorthTransco Zone 4Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2
Note: Jul 21' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (64), down (8).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jul. 21, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 22, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550556065Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jul 21, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.58Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jul 20 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Jul 21, '22
51%60%52%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jul 21 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jul 20 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
463453298323291302567585585Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
14 Jul 2215 Jul 2216 Jul 2217 Jul 2218 Jul 2219 Jul 2220 Jul 22500010000150002000025000300003500040000450005000014 Jul 2215 Jul 2216 Jul 2217 Jul 2218 Jul 2219 Jul 2220 Jul 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)120013001400150016001700180019002000210012 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 JulCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350011 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 JulWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200011 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 JulPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
19720521623424326325224515 July16 July17 July18 July19 July20 July21 July22 July05010015020025015 July16 July17 July18 July19 July20 July21 July22 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 2°
Boston 6°
Washington 4°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit 6°
Denver 4°
Austin 4°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 2°
Boston 6°
Washington 4°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit 6°
Denver 4°
Austin 4°
Atlanta -2°

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