July 20, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The August gas futures contract shot up 74.3¢ Wednesday to $8.007 per million Btu, a level last seen in mid-June before the seriousness of the Freeport LNG outage became clear. Where the contract goes from here could depend on Thursday’s storage data, which is expected to show a weekly injection 6 billion cubic feet above the seasonal average. Still, bears will have a tough time staunching this bull run as the intensifying heat wave pushed gas burns to an all-time high 49 Bcf on Tuesday and the week’s average to 46.1 Bcf/d, also a record. The 12-month strip rose 52.4¢ to $6.848; the 2023 calendar strip was up 30.3¢ to $5.693 (Futures contracts).

WTI August crude fell $1.96 to roll off the board at $102.26/bbl. The new September prompt month sank 86¢ to $99.88/bbl.

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a larger-than-normal 47 Bcf build into storage for the week ended Jul. 15 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would raise inventories to 2,416 Bcf, about 11.5% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with a five-year average injection of 41 Bcf and the year-ago build of 50 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought cooling degree days to 93, above the 87 CDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jul. 22 are for a 30 Bcf injection, with a range from 17 Bcf to 41 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average injection of 32 Bcf and year-ago build of 38 Bcf.

* * *

As cooling loads spike in New England, Boston-area Algonquin saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $14.70 to $24.10. However, a better supplied Transco zone 6 New York went down 56¢ to average $8.23. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 20¢ at $7.55. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 16¢ to average $7.14. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 7¢ to $7.36, SoCal Citygate declined 20¢ to average $8.75 and Northwest Sumas lost 11¢ to average $6.88. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 8¢ to $3.86 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Asset management giant BlackRock said Wednesday it is buying Vanguard Resources, a firm that converts cow manure and food waste into renewable natural gas, from Vision Ridge Partners. The deal is worth $700 million, a source familiar with the details told Energy Intelligence. Vanguard, which has a deal to supply RNG to utility holding company Dominion Energy, said the BlackRock deal will help it reach a goal to commission more than 100 anaerobic digesters to produce RNG across the US by 2026. The Massachusetts-based company currently operates six digesters in the US Northeast and several manure-only digesters in the South and West. RNG “is an attractive and fast-growing market that provides decarbonization solutions for both the provider of the waste, as well as the natural gas consumer,” said Mark Florian, head of diversified infrastructure for subsidiary BlackRock Real Assets.

* * *

Kore Infrastructure has successfully begun testing and demonstrating its carbon-negative, waste-to-energy modular system that renders both hydrogen and RNG at a Southern California Gas facility in Los Angeles. The innovative technology uses organic waste from California landfills to create these clean fuels for industrial processes and hard-to-electrify sectors, including heavy-duty transportation. SoCalGas contributed $1.5 million to the demonstration project, which has also received funding from the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

Tom Haywood, Houston and Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Zone 4SonatIroquoisSoCal CitygateTransco Z6 - NYTransco Z6 - Non-NYTetco M3-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Zone 4SonatIroquoisSoCal CitygateTransco Z6 - NYTransco Z6 - Non-NYTetco M3
Note: Jul 20' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (58), down (14).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jul. 20, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 21, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0102030405060Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jul 20, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.58Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jul 19 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jul 20 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jul 19 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
162463453298323291302567585Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20(MMcf/d)01002003004005006007008009001000Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
13 Jul 2214 Jul 2215 Jul 2216 Jul 2217 Jul 2218 Jul 2219 Jul 22500010000150002000025000300003500040000450005000013 Jul 2214 Jul 2215 Jul 2216 Jul 2217 Jul 2218 Jul 2219 Jul 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)120013001400150016001700180019002000210011 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 JulCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350010 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 JulWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)70080090010001100120013001400150016001700180010 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 JulPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
19819720521623424325025214 July15 July16 July17 July18 July19 July20 July21 July02040608010012014016018020022024026014 July15 July16 July17 July18 July19 July20 July21 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 2°
Boston 4°
Washington -1°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit 2°
Denver 1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 2°
Boston 4°
Washington -1°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 2°
Minneapolis 6°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 6°
Detroit 2°
Denver 1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta -2°

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