July 5, 2022

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Gas Markets

Market Watch


A new round of weather forecasts combined with near-record production levels sent the August gas futures contract down 20.7¢ Tuesday to $5.523 per million Btu. “After what has been a blistering June, the market seemingly will see some relief from moderate July temperatures,” Gelber and Associates said, adding that gas demand for power generation should “grow at a slightly slower pace and stagnate through the beginning of July.” And given that US output is hovering around 95 billion cubic feet per day, “it does seem like there is potential for additional downside risk.” The 12-month strip fell 17.6¢ to $5.108; the 2023 strip slid 11.8¢ to 4.644 (Futures Contracts).


WTI August crude futures plummeted $8.93 to settle at $99.50/bbl amid growing fears of a global recession.

* * *

Transco Zone 5 saw the most significant cash price move of the day, rising $7.22 to $14.52. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 4¢ at $5.67. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 15¢ to average $5.33, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $1.08 to average $6.21. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 10¢ to average $5.04. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 9¢ to $5.28, SoCal Citygate advanced 8¢ to average $5.47 and Northwest Sumas averaged $3.75. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 34¢ to $3.55.


* * *

Global natural gas demand is expected to dip this year and then grow at a slow rate over the following three years as Russia's war in Ukraine raises prices and drives concerns about supply disruptions, the International Energy Agency said. In its quarterly gas report, the IEA said global gas demand is expected to decline by 0.5% this year. From 2021 to 2025, it is expected to rise by a total of 140 billion cubic metres (bcm). That compares to demand of nearly 175 bcm last year and is less than half of a 370 bcm rise in the previous five years. The fall in demand growth is mostly the result of weaker economic activity and less switching from coal or oil to gas because of high gas prices worldwide, the report said.


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NextDecade said Tuesday it has reached a deal to supply China Gas Holdings with LNG from its Rio Grande export project in Brownsville Texas. The 20-year agreement involves 1 million metric tons per year from Rio Grande’s second train, on which NextDecade expects to make a final investment decision this year. Financial terms were not disclosed. The deal marks the latest in a string of recent contracts with US LNG developers as global gas supplies have tightened and prices have soared. In May, NextDecade signed a 15-year supply agreement with France’s Engie SA for 1.75 mt/yr of LNG.


* * *

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Jul. 1 approved Tennessee Gas Pipeline’s (TGP) novel responsibly sourced gas (RSG) pooling service, which will enable the pipeline’s shippers to purchase and sell gas that has been certified by a third party to meet certain environmental standards at all pooling points across TGP’s system. Shippers initially challenged the Kinder Morgan subsidiary’s proposal, citing concerns that it would “significantly hinder” development of the RSG market, but later backed the proposal after TGP made modifications. TGP said it will work with producers and customers to refine the service as regulations and markets evolve.

Everett Wheeler, Houston and Mark Davidson, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 5Transco Station 65Florida Zone 3Transco Zone 4AlgonquinTransco Station 30El Paso PermianAECOEmpressFlorida Zone 2-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Transco Zone 5Transco Station 65Florida Zone 3Transco Zone 4AlgonquinTransco Station 30El Paso PermianAECOEmpressFlorida Zone 2
Note: Jul 5' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (58), down (18).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jul. 5, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 6, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jul 5, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.588.599.5Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jul 1 '22


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jul 5 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jul 1 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
924847517443626507362338301Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
25 Jun 2226 Jun 2227 Jun 2228 Jun 2229 Jun 2230 Jun 22 1 Jul 2260008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400025 Jun 2226 Jun 2227 Jun 2228 Jun 2229 Jun 2230 Jun 22 1 Jul 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)14001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 JulCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400025 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 JulWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)90010001100120013001400150016001700180025 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun30 Jun 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 JulPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
16819519820119819119519529 June30 June1 July2 July3 July4 July5 July6 July02040608010012014016018020022029 June30 June1 July2 July3 July4 July5 July6 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 2°
Boston 0°
Washington -1°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit 0°
Denver 1°
Austin 5°
Atlanta -1°
Southeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 2°
Boston 0°
Washington -1°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -5°
Detroit 0°
Denver 1°
Austin 5°
Atlanta -1°

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